Palm Oil Extends Weakness

Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,500 per tonne on Wednesday, retreating for a second straight session as a stronger ringgit and weaker edible oil prices in Dalian and Chicago weighed on sentiment. Crude oil also fell sharply on signs of a possible Middle East ceasefire, reducing biodiesel-linked demand support. Traders remained cautious ahead of export estimates for the first 25 days of March, due later today, with demand likely slowing after the Eid festive period. In top buyer India, refiners reportedly scaled back purchases of palm, soyoil, and sunflower oil, viewing the recent conflict-driven rally as temporary and planning to restock once tensions ease. India’s palm oil imports are projected at around 680,000 tons in March, down from 847,689 tons in February. Still, losses were capped by expectations that Indonesia, the world's largest supplier, may raise export taxes in April and accelerate its B50 biodiesel mandate rollout.

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to around MYR 4,580 per tonne on Tuesday, reversing gains from the prior session as trading resumed after the Eid holiday, rattled by weaker edible oils on the Dalian market. Sentiment also turned cautious, with global edible oil markets expected to remain volatile. While energy disruptions in the Middle East have lifted expectations for biodiesel demand, buying interest from key importers has been uneven, clouding the broader outlook. Still, losses were capped by a weaker ringgit and expectations that top producer Indonesia may raise its palm oil export taxes in April. Meanwhile, recent data highlighted a pickup in export demand, with cargo surveyors estimating March 1–15 shipments surged 43.5%–56.9% month-on-month, supported by festive buying. In India, the world’s largest consumer, palm oil imports rose 11% in February to a six-month high, aided by its price discount versus rival oils.

Malaysian palm oil futures rose to around MYR 4,580 per tonne, recovering from weakness in the prior two sessions amid a softer ringgit and firmer soyoil prices on the Dalian market. Export momentum also strengthened, with cargo surveyors reporting March 1–15 shipments surged 43.5%–56.9% month-on-month, boosted by festive demand. Meanwhile, imports by top buyer India climbed 11% in February to a six-month high, aided by palm oil’s discount to rival oils. Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world's largest supplier, is weighing new commodity taxes, including on palm oil, to keep its budget deficit within 3% of the GDP, a step that could tighten global supply. However, futures remain on track for a weekly decline of about 0.4% so far, reversing recent gains, as rising cost pressures weigh on sentiment. Supply chain disruptions and feedstock shortages linked to Middle East tensions have pushed up raw material prices. Trading will pause on Friday for the Eid break and resume on March 24.