Palm Oil Poised for Modest Weekly Gain

Malaysian palm oil futures rose modestly, hovering near MYR 4,600 after a recent pullback and on track for their first weekly gain in three. Support came from a weaker ringgit and firmer crude oil prices amid renewed Middle East tensions, boosting biodiesel-linked demand. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects prices to stay above MYR 4,500 in the near term, helped by elevated energy costs and potential El Niño risks. Expectations of stronger demand from top buyer India also grew after March shipments fell 19% mom. Simultaneously, Malaysia is moving toward a higher biodiesel blend, targeting B15 from the current B10, a move that could absorb up to 1-1/2 million tonnes annually and tighten supply in line with regional efforts to curb fuel imports. Gains, however, were capped by weak exports, with cargo surveyors noting April 1–20 shipments down about 25.6%–25.8% from March; while softer imports of key commodities in China, notably soybeans, may further weigh on the edible oils outlook.

Malaysian palm oil futures fell slightly, hovering below MYR 4,620 as traders booked profits after a near two-week high in recent days. Sentiment weakened on softer edible oils in Dalian and sluggish exports, with cargo surveyors noting April 1–20 shipments down about 25.6%–25.8% from March amid the absence of festive demand. In the main consumer China, imports of key commodities, particularly soybeans, may fall this year, clouding the broader edible oil outlook. Still, palm oil is up around 3.7% so far this week, rebounding from losses in the prior two periods, lifted by a weaker ringgit and firmer crude prices due to Middle East shipping disruptions. Hopes of stronger demand from top buyer India also grew after March shipments fell 19% mom. Meantime, Malaysia is moving toward higher biodiesel blends, targeting B15 from the current B10. The policy could absorb 1–1-1/2 million tonnes annually, tightening supply as Kuala Lumpur follows Jakarta in expanding mandates to curb fuel imports.

Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains for a third straight session, holding near MYR 4,600 per tonne, lifted by a softer ringgit and firmer edible oil prices in Dalian and Chicago markets. On the demand side, purchases from top buyer India may rebound after March shipments fell 19% mom, suggesting restocking ahead. Meanwhile, Malaysia is advancing toward a B15 biodiesel mandate from the current B10, with an interim target of B12. The move is expected to absorb 1–1-1/2 million tonnes of palm oil annually, tightening exportable supply, as Kuala Lumpur follows Jakarta in expanding blending mandates to reduce imported fuel dependence. However, the upside was capped by weak export estimates, with cargo surveyors reporting April 1–20 shipments down about 25.6%–25.8% from March, partly due to the absence of festive demand. Turning to China, another main consumer, authorities signaled imports of key commodities, particularly soybeans, could decline this year, weighing on edible oil demand.