Palm Oil Poised for Modest Weekly Gain

Malaysian palm oil futures jumped 1.3% to about MYR 4,650 per tonne, rebounding from earlier weakness as firmer prices on China’s Dalian market lent support. Export prospects also brightened after surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s shipments surged 33.5% in the first ten days of October from the same period in September. In top buyer India, refiners reportedly booked around 150,000 tonnes of palm oil in three days last week, with sunflower oil supplies tight ahead of November’s festive demand. Even so, upside was capped by bearish monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. September inventories swelled 24.5% to a record 3.51 million tonnes, extending a six-month rise. At the same time, output climbed 16.5% to 2.12million tonnes, the highest since August 2015, while exports fell 12.1% to 1.12million tonnes, marking a second monthly drop. Traders remained cautious, awaiting China’s inflation and trade figures later this week for further signals on demand in another key market.

Malaysian palm oil futures inched higher, hovering near MYR 4,670 per tonne after a strong rally, supported by firmer edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago markets and brisk Indian buying, with refiners securing about 150,000 tonnes in three days amid tight sunflower oil supplies ahead of November’s festive demand. Traders also awaited Malaysia’s 2027 state budget for potential industry support and monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board for direction. Gains were capped, however, by a stronger ringgit and softer crude oil after U.S. President Trump said Washington would not attack Iran before next month’s U.S. elections. Meanwhile, Reuters projected inventories to hit a record high in September, topping the 2018 peak, as rising output outpaced sluggish exports. Cargo surveyors estimated shipments plunged between 17.1%–28.8% mom, underscoring weak demand. Despite headwinds, futures were on track for a weekly rise of near 3% so far, reversing weakness in the prior two periods.

Malaysian palm oil futures surged over 3% to above MYR 4,650 per tonne, snapping recent declines as a weaker ringgit and firmer crude oil prices boosted competitiveness. Gains in rival edible oils on China’s Dalian exchange also lifted sentiment as markets reopened after Golden Week. In India, buyers secured about 150,000 tonnes in three days, with refiners turning to palm oil amid tight sunflower oil supplies ahead of November’s festive demand. However, caution prevailed before Malaysian Palm Oil Board data, with Reuters forecasting September inventories to hit a record high, surpassing the 2018 peak, as output outpaced sluggish exports. Cargo surveyors estimated shipments slipped 17.1%–28.8% mom. Meanwhile, EU imports for the 2026/27 season dropped 18% yoy to 0.71 million tonnes. In Indonesia, nearly 260,000 hectares of reclaimed land were handed to the Forestry Ministry, with more than half slated for management by Agrinas Palma Nusantara, potentially adding to long-term supply.