Nickel Remains Under Pressure from Ample Supply

Nickel traded around $15,600 per tonne, remaining near a recent over nine-month low of $15,510, as persistent oversupply and a stronger US dollar weighed on prices. LME inventories remained elevated at around 283,000 tonnes in early October, underscoring ample availability despite some production disruptions, while Indonesian nickel ore benchmarks had declined and premiums turned negative. Additionally, the dollar index had recently reached its highest level since April 2025, while rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate hike added pressure on dollar-denominated metals. Overnight declines in Chinese nickel and stainless steel prices also pointed to continued weakness across the metals market. Meanwhile, Indonesia is considering a moratorium on new smelters producing semi-finished nickel products to address an estimated global surplus of 2.5 million tonnes. If implemented, the restrictions could curb future capacity growth.

Nickel decreased to 15812.00 USD/T, the lowest since December 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Nickel lost 6.27%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 3.77%.

Nickel fell to below $15,510 per tonne, hitting its lowest level since December 2025 as ample availability continued to weigh on prices. Philippine nickel ore shipments to Indonesia have increased in recent months, with the additional supply helping Indonesian smelters maintain feedstock access. Additionally, LME on-warrant inventories rose to 278,898 tonnes by September 24 from an August low of 264,444 tonnes, reinforcing comfortable stocks in the market. Demand has also struggled to keep pace with available supply, with nickel consumption still largely tied to stainless-steel production and battery demand providing only a limited offset. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s lower nickel ore quota remains below the roughly 315 million tonnes needed to run processing capacity at full rates, while water shortages have prompted some smelters at the Morowali Industrial Park to cut production, potentially affecting around 100,000 tonnes of nickel pig iron output.