US Natgas Prices Fall to Over 1-Week Low

US natural gas prices dropped more than 3% to $3.11 per million British thermal units on Friday, their lowest level in over a week. Prices were down around 3% for the week, following a 6% gain the previous week. Average production across the Lower 48 states reached 110.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in October, below August and September records of 113.3 bcfd. Recent disruptions linked to Hurricane Isaias, Gulf of Mexico shutdowns and pipeline problems contributed to the decline. LSEG expects demand, including exports, to rise from 103.87 bcfd this week to 106.8 bcfd over the following two weeks as colder weather arrives. Meanwhile, average feedgas deliveries to major US LNG export terminals eased to 17.6 bcfd in October from 17.9 bcfd in September. However, daily flows were on track to reach a five-month high of 18.9 bcfd on Friday, supported by stronger deliveries to Sabine Pass and Golden Pass.

US natural gas prices were above $3.20 per million British thermal units, approaching a three-week high after government data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in storage. The EIA reported an injection of 67 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 9, below forecasts of 76 bcf and the five-year average of 90 bcf. Total inventories reached 3.567 trillion cubic feet, leaving stocks 3.9% below year-earlier levels but 1.3% above the seasonal norm. Supply constraints have also supported prices, with Lower 48 production averaging 110.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from record levels of 113.3 bcfd in August and September. Hurricane-related shutdowns, force majeure events and pipeline disruptions contributed to the decline. However, forecasts for milder-than-usual weather through October 29 could restrain heating and cooling demand. Meanwhile, average feedgas deliveries to major US LNG export terminals slipped to 17.5 bcfd from 17.9 bcfd in September.

US natural gas futures rose to around $3.25 per million British thermal units on Thursday, moving back near a three-week high as market attention turned to the EIA’s weekly storage report due later in the day. Analysts expect the storage surplus to narrow to 1.6% above seasonal norms in the week ended October 9, from 2% in the previous week. On the supply side, gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 110.8 bcfd so far in October, below the record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September. The decline reflected hurricane-related shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico, force majeure events and pipeline disruptions across several states. However, gains were limited by forecasts for mostly milder-than-normal weather across the country through October 29, which is expected to curb both heating and cooling demand. In addition, average feedgas deliveries to the nine major US LNG export terminals eased to 17.5 bcfd this month so far, from 17.9 bcfd in September.