US Natgas Prices Hold Decline

US natural gas futures held recent decline, hovering around $3.21 per MMBtu amid forecasts for a larger-than-usual weekly build in inventories. Gas stockpiles were estimated to rise by 61 bcf for the week ended July 3, exceeding the five-year average increase of 51 bcf for the same period, pointing to comfortable supply conditions. Meanwhile, weather forecasts indicate that temperatures will remain mostly above normal through July 23, likely keeping gas demand from power generators elevated. LNG export demand also remained firm, with average gas flows to major LNG export facilities rising to 17.8 bcfd so far in July, up from 17.4 bcfd in June. On the supply side, gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 109.4 bcfd so far in July from 110.0 bcfd in June and was below the record monthly high of 110.6 bcfd reached in December 2025.

US natural gas futures hovered at $3.24 per MMBtu, supported by falling output and rising flows to LNG export plants. Gas production in the Lower 48 states fell to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July from 110.0 bcfd in June and was below the record monthly high of 110.6 bcfd reached in December 2025. At the same time, average gas flows to major LNG export plants rose to 18.1 bcfd so far in July, up from 17.4 bcfd in June, reflecting stronger overseas demand. Prices also received support from speculation that a recent heatwave drove a surge in gas demand from power generators as they ramped up electricity production to meet increased cooling needs, contributing to withdrawals from domestic storage inventories. However, the upside may be limited as weather forecasts have shifted to indicate cooler conditions across the eastern half of the US through July 15, potentially reducing cooling demand.

US natural gas futures dropped to around $3.22 per MMbtu, driven by robust domestic supplies, falling oil prices, and shifting weather patterns. According to the Energy Information Administration, energy firms injected a larger-than-expected 87 billion cubic feet of gas into storage for the week ending June 26, keeping total stockpiles roughly 6.2% above historical averages. Looking ahead, meteorologists expect warmer-than-normal temperatures through mid-July. Meanwhile, June production in the Lower 48 states averaged a strong 110 billion cubic feet per day, approaching record highs, while average flows to major liquefied natural gas export terminals reached 17.3 billion cubic feet per day. Simultaneously, crude oil prices slid to prewar levels following diplomatic progress between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, dampening energy markets.