Lumber Retreats from 3-Month High

Lumber futures slipped below $590 per thousand board feet, the lowest level in nearly four weeks, as housing demand weakened and earlier restocking momentum faded. Demand softened as financing costs edged higher and housing activity cooled, with US pending home sales plunging 9.3% month on month in December 2025, removing a key source of construction and renovation related wood consumption ahead of the spring building season. At the same time, mills continued running to rebuild inventories after the winter squeeze, increasing physical availability while distributors reported quieter order books. The combination of softer demand and rising availability encouraged position unwinds after January’s rally, with falling volumes and open interest amplifying the price decline.

Lumber futures fell toward $590 per thousand board feet, retreating from its three-month high of $614.5 seen January 20th as US housing data weakened and earlier restocking flows faded. Pending home sales plunged 9.3% month on month in December, the sharpest drop since April 2020, signalling softer transaction activity and tempering expectations for near-term construction demand ahead of the spring building season. Physical markets also cooled, with distributors reporting quieter order books even as mills continued running at steady rates to rebuild inventories after earlier tightness, briefly loosening availability. The pullback was reinforced by profit-taking after the January rally, with falling volumes and open interest pointing to position unwinds rather than a fresh wave of bearish selling.

Lumber futures climbed above $600 per thousand board feet, the highest level in nearly three months, as a firmer demand outlook compounded with a tightening North American supply environment. Demand expectations are improving after 30-year mortgage rates fell to 6.06% on January 15th, the lowest in more than three years, lifting purchase and refinance activity and encouraging builders to restock ahead of a stronger spring construction season. Supply pressures are intensifying as higher US duties on Canadian softwood have raised landed costs and pushed buyers to bring forward orders to mitigate further tariff risk. These policy effects are reinforcing structurally lower harvests and ongoing mill curtailments and closures across Canada, reducing physical availability. At the same time, US Producer Price Index data and industry surveys show construction input costs remain elevated, indicating tariff related cost pressures are filtering through the supply chain.