Lithium Falls to Near 10-Month Low

Lithium carbonate prices in China fell to CNY 115,000 per tonne in October, the lowest year-to-date, driven by a combination of softer demand and fresh evidence of a robust supply backdrop. The EU is set to cap imports of Chinese hybrid electric vehicles at 350,000 units annually starting next year. The European Commission noted that this is expected to halve China's market share across the bloc, limiting orders from battery manufacturers in the region after recent data showed higher-than-expected lithium inventories. Industry group SMM changed its methodology for compiling inventory data, which led to a 175,000-tonne increase in Chinese stockpiles, double previous estimates. This coincided with a strong outlook for Australian producers, as Mineral Resources restarted the Bald Hill lithium mine following an 18-month suspension, while Core Lithium restarted its Finniss project.

Lithium carbonate prices in China fell below CNY 123,000 per tonne, the lowest year-to-date, after an upward revision to stockpiles drove markets to price a more comfortable supply backdrop. Industry group SMM changed its methodology to compile inventory data that prompted a 175,000-ton increase in Chinese stockpiles, double the earlier estimates. This was combined with a strong outlook for Australian producers. Mineral Resources restarted Bald Hill lithium mine following an 18-month suspension, while Core Lithium restarted its Finniss project. A sharper pullback was prevented by more disruption in CATL's Jianxiawo mine, China's largest by capacity and responsible for 4% of global supply. Chinese authorities revoked their environmental approvals for the mine to extend the period of permit hurdles for over one year, coinciding with Beijing's anti-involution campaign and efforts to combat producer overcapacity.

Lithium carbonate prices in China fell to CNY 143,000 per tonne in September, the lowest in nearly one month, as the outlook of higher production in Australia offset supply uncertainty in China. Industry players reiterated the outlook of ample supply from major producers to maintain the ongoing supply surplus through the next decade. These were led by Australian lithium producers, with Mineral Resources restarting its Bald Hill lithium mine following an 18-month suspension, while Core Lithium restarted its Finniss project. A sharper pullback was prevented by more disruption in CATL's Jianxiawo mine, China's largest by capacity and responsible for 4% of global supply. Chinese authorities revoked their environmental approvals for the mine to extend the period of permit hurdles for over one year, coinciding with Beijing's anti-involution campaign and efforts to combat producer overcapacity.