Heating Oil Extends Advance

Heating oil futures pared earlier gains to around $4.40 per gallon on Monday, as traders weighed reports of renewed ceasefire efforts in the Middle East against a fresh ultimatum from President Donald Trump on Iran. Reports indicated that the US, Iran, and regional mediators were negotiating a potential 45-day ceasefire, although the chances of even a partial deal within the next 48 hours remained low. At the same time, Iran said Iraq would be exempt from Strait curbs, potentially boosting oil flows, while SOMO confirmed that Iraqi shipments are unrestricted and can be loaded. Meanwhile, President Trump warned on social media that Iran would face severe consequences if it fails to reopen the passage by Tuesday, including possible strikes on key infrastructure such as power plants and bridges. Elsewhere, OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 206,000 bpd in May, though closed Strait routes and damaged infrastructure may limit how much supply reaches global markets.

Heating oil futures climbed more than 2% to above $4.40 per gallon on Monday, extending gains from the previous session, after President Trump renewed pressure on Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz. He warned on social media that Iran would face severe consequences if it fails to reopen the passage, including potential strikes on key infrastructure such as power plants and bridges. This follows his national address last week, in which he said the conflict could continue for two to three weeks. Meanwhile, the eight OPEC+ members agreed to raise production by 206,000 barrels per day in May, though it remains uncertain how the additional oil will reach global markets as the Strait remains closed. OPEC+ also cautioned that repairing energy infrastructure damaged by Iranian attacks is costly and time-consuming, likely continuing to limit overall supply.

Heating oil futures climbed 7.5% to around $4.36 per gallon, snapping a three-day decline and tracking advances in crude prices, after President Trump said the US would strike Iran in the coming weeks. In his rare prime-time address, Trump offered no clear end date for the Middle East conflict, noting that the US had nearly achieved its strategic goals in Iran but warning of further military action over the next two to three weeks. The statement elevated the risk of more widespread damage to energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf region. Meanwhile, Iran denied Trump’s claim that Tehran had requested a ceasefire, and added that the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened and that the key transit route remains firmly under the control of the IRGC Navy. Elsewhere, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.1 million barrels last week.