TTF Prices Plunge on US-Iran Ceasefire

European natural gas futures declined more than 15% to around €45 per MWh on Wednesday, the lowest level in five weeks, after President Donald Trump agreed to delay planned strikes on Iran for two weeks in exchange for Iran allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire came less than two hours before Trump’s deadline, after which he had threatened to “wipe out a whole civilization.” Iran said its military would coordinate transit through the Strait, while Trump noted that negotiations appeared to be making progress, citing a 10-point proposal from Iran that he described as a “workable basis” for a longer-term peace framework. The temporary pause offers both sides a window to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has severely disrupted global energy flows. Traffic through the waterway has fallen sharply since the conflict began in late February, while roughly 20% of global LNG supply from Qatar remains cut off.

TTF Gas decreased to 43.98 EUR/MWh, the lowest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural Gas EU lost 5.68%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 49.87%.

European natural gas futures jumped over 4% to €52.3 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday, following US President Donald Trump’s escalated threats against Iran if his conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz are not met by his 8 p.m. Eastern Time deadline. Trump warned that US forces could destroy “every bridge in Iran by midnight tomorrow” and render power plants “burning, exploding, and never to be used again.” He stressed that freedom of navigation through the Strait must be guaranteed, calling its reopening “a very big priority.” European gas, now just over 28% of storage capacity, faces pressure from potential prolonged supply disruptions. While most Middle East LNG usually heads to Asia, continued curbs could intensify competition for the limited global pool. Traders note that Iran has yet to permit any LNG carriers through the strait during the war, sharply reducing traffic and leaving roughly one-fifth of global LNG output offline, fueling price spikes across Europe.