TTF Prices Surge on Iran Tensions, Hormuz Risks

European natural gas prices fell to €72/MWh on Tuesday, giving back much of the prior session's gains as a report of increased LNG tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz eased some supply concerns. Several QatarEnergy-linked vessels have recently been seen outside the strait, suggesting LNG flows may be gradually resuming. However, supply risks remain elevated as the US and Iran remained far apart on a new deal that could reopen the waterway, with Tehran maintaining conditions that President Trump has rejected. QatarEnergy also extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy’s Edison through early December. European storage facilities are around 71% full, below the five-year seasonal average of 87%, while Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, has even lower storage levels, at just over 57%. The situation is further complicated by intense competition with Asia and ongoing maintenance on Norway’s gas infrastructure, heightening concerns over gas supply adequacy during winter.

European natural gas prices rose above €72/MWh, as Qatar’s prolonged LNG supply disruptions and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about gas supplies. QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy’s Edison through December, while Pakistan has reportedly secured an extension into November because of difficulties shipping gas through the waterway. Iran has maintained its conditions for reopening the strait after US President Donald Trump rejected its latest proposal, although he indicated that talks could resume this week. The prolonged uncertainty is raising concerns about Europe’s ability to replenish gas inventories before winter. EU officials urged member states to conserve energy and continue filling storage. European facilities are around 71% full, well below the five-year seasonal average of 87%, while Germany’s storage sites are just over 57% full. LNG imports have increased since mid-August, but supply competition remains a key risk.

European natural gas prices rose above €72/MWh on Monday after declining the previous week, as President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying the terms were unacceptable. The move reignited concerns over prolonged disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. Reports that Trump expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms also added to uncertainty. Despite this, Trump said he expects talks with Tehran to resume this week. Iran, meanwhile, has reiterated its commitment to diplomacy while maintaining its existing conditions. Europe’s relatively low gas inventories was the main concern as the winter heating season approaches, with storage facilities around 70% full, below the five-year seasonal average and the bloc’s target. The EU reportedly warned of a potential energy price crisis stemming from the conflict, calling on member states to curb demand and continue replenishing storage ahead of winter.