TTF Prices Rise to 1-Month High

European natural gas prices climbed above €94/MWh on Friday, extending their rebound from a two-week low amid persistent supply concerns. While traders remain hopeful of a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war, an immediate deal remains uncertain, with key disagreements between the two sides still unresolved. Continued attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have also heightened concerns over Gulf LNG shipments, with the conflict disrupting nearly a fifth of global LNG supply. Europe’s energy balance remains tight ahead of winter, with EU gas storage at around 74%, well below the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany’s reserves have fallen below 61%. Colder weather, coupled with low wind and solar generation, has prompted early withdrawals from storage, while reduced Norwegian pipeline flows due to outages have added to supply concerns. Despite Friday's gains, prices are on track to drop by 9% this week, their first weekly decline in six weeks.

European natural gas prices rebounded to around €90/MWh from a two-week low of €88 on November 4, as persistent supply constraints continued to underpin the market. Despite the recent decline from record levels above €100/MWh, Europe’s energy balance remains fragile, with LNG deliveries from the Persian Gulf still disrupted by the Iran conflict. Tehran reported that a tanker had struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, while discussions with Oman are underway to restore shipping traffic. The conflict removed nearly a fifth of global LNG exports, leaving European inventories unusually low ahead of winter and intensifying competition with Asian buyers. EU storage levels have fallen to 74%, compared with a five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany’s reserves are below 61%. Colder temperatures and weaker wind and solar generation have increased withdrawals. Also, Norwegian pipeline supplies remain below capacity due to outages.

European natural gas prices fell to €85/MWh on Thursday, extending their losses to more than 18% so far this week and hovering at their lowest level in over two weeks. The decline reflects growing optimism over diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Iran war, with Qatar continuing to mediate between the two sides. A sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections also eased concerns about further military escalation, as the results could give Democrats greater influence over government spending, potentially limiting President Trump's ability to sustain military operations against Iran. However, supply tightness persists, as LNG deliveries from the Persian Gulf remain disrupted. The bloc is entering winter with its lowest gas storage levels in more than a decade, with inventories standing at 74.33% of capacity as of November 4 and well below the minimum target of 80%. Meanwhile, forecasts of colder temperatures across Northwest Europe are likely to boost heating demand.