EU Natural Gas Falls Further Toward 20-Month Low

European natural gas prices jumped more than 2% to above €73/MWh on Monday, their highest level in more than three and a half years, amid escalating US-Iran tensions that could further disrupt energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. Iran said it had targeted oil tankers and several US-linked vessels and plans to establish a restricted maritime zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. This followed US strikes on Iranian oil tankers, which Washington said were carried out in retaliation for Tehran’s missile attacks on US Navy warships. The continuing tit-for-tat escalation is heightening concerns that Qatari LNG shipments to Europe could be delayed even further. Europe is approaching the end of its summer storage injection period, with gas storage facilities currently around 62% full, below the five-year seasonal average. This increases the risk of tighter competition for supplies and leaves the region more exposed to price spikes during the colder months.

European natural gas prices rose above €72 per MWh on Friday, recouping part of the previous session’s losses as investors assessed renewed tensions in the Middle East. The latest flare-up came after a US attack on Iran triggered retaliatory strikes on American bases across the region, fueling supply disruption fears and sending European gas prices to their highest level in more than three years. Although President Trump indicated that renewed strikes on Tehran would not last too long, tensions remain high around the Strait of Hormuz. The shipping paralysis continues to hamper Gulf LNG supplies to Europe, slowing the pace of inventory replenishment. Europe’s gas inventories for the upcoming winter remain abnormally low, raising the risk of tighter competition and leaving the region vulnerable to price spikes during colder months. European gas prices have climbed more than 7% this week, their fourth consecutive weekly gain.

European natural gas prices fell to around €72 per MWh on Thursday after climbing to their highest level in more than three years in the previous session, as President Trump said the renewed campaign against Iran would not last long, easing some market concerns. However, Trump warned that Tehran could face heavy attacks if the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. The latest escalation marked the most intense exchange of strikes between the two sides since July, with neither side willing to relinquish control of the strategic waterway. Around one-fifth of global LNG trade typically passes through the strait, primarily from Qatar. With the winter heating season approaching and European gas storage levels remaining below seasonal norms, the region remains highly sensitive to any prolonged disruption to Gulf supplies.