European Natural Gas Market Remains Stable

European natural gas prices rose 3.8% to around €42/MWh as market confidence in a swift supply recovery faded. Renewed attacks in Lebanon and the cancellation of planned talks aimed at solidifying a preliminary US-Iran truce weighed on sentiment. Although an earlier interim agreement between Washington and Tehran had briefly raised expectations of improved flows, shipping data showed no outbound tanker movements from the Persian Gulf on Friday morning after a short-lived increase in activity earlier in the week. Weather also supported prices, with forecasts of high temperatures across Europe expected to boost cooling demand. EU gas storage levels are currently around 45.56% full, compared with 54.38% a year earlier and 14% below the five-year average, while net injections in June are running below seasonal norms. Prices had fallen nearly 20% over the previous week on hopes that a US-Iran agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore LNG flows from the Gulf.

European natural gas prices rose to around €41.5 per MWh but remained on track for a weekly loss of more than 11% amid easing Middle East supply risks. An interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, signed on Wednesday, has seen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz begin returning to normal, with several vessels reportedly transiting the waterway on Thursday. The reopening of the strait sent European gas prices to a two-month low, erasing most of the war-driven gains. Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, is preparing to rapidly resume production at its Ras Laffan facilities and expects output at sites unaffected by Iranian strikes to return to full capacity within a month. The resumption of LNG exports from the Persian Gulf could support Europe's efforts to replenish relatively low gas storage levels ahead of next winter.

European natural gas prices fell 3% to around €40.6 per MWh, the lowest since April 20, as an interim US–Iran agreement is now in effect after both sides signed the memorandum remotely. Pakistan's prime minister said the signing means Iran will “instantly reopen” the Strait of Hormuz and the US will “immediately lift” its naval blockade on all Iranian ports. The deal also includes the permanent end to hostilities and initiates a 60-day negotiating period to reach a final agreement on the future of Iran's nuclear program, although Trump warned he would restart the war if Tehran fails to comply with the terms of the 14-point memorandum of understanding. In anticipation of the strait's imminent reopening, a handful of vessels have started returning to the Middle East, including tankers from Qatar, the world's second-largest LNG exporter.