Cotton Hits 8-week Low

Cotton futures plunged below 80 cents per pound, approaching their lowest level in three months, pressured by rising new-crop supplies and subdued export demand. The US harvest is progressing faster than both last year and the five-year average, with 17% of the crop harvested compared with the historical average of 15%, while Texas and Arizona are running well ahead of their normal pace, according to the latest USDA NASS Crop Progress report. Ample supplies from Brazil are adding to the bearish pressure, with the country producing more than 4.1 million tonnes and exporting a record 3.37 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 19% from the previous season, intensifying competition in global markets. Meanwhile, import demand from key Asian consumers remains weak. China, the world’s largest cotton consumer, imported just 80,000 tonnes in August 2026, down 12.1% from 90,000 tonnes in July.

Cotton decreased to 80.68 USd/Lbs, the lowest since August 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cotton lost 13.27%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 27.74%.

Cotton futures fell to around 81 cents per pound, approaching its lowest level in two months, as traders assess whether demand can keep pace with the expected rise in new-crop availability. As the seasonal harvest progresses, additional supply is weighing on prices, particularly in Arizona, where 39% of the crop had been harvested, and Texas, up to 23%, in the week ending September 20th. Additionally, while high temperatures and lack of precipitation, particularly in Texas, increase stress on crops, its conditions continue to worsen, with only 34% of crops rated good or excelent on the same week. Bearish sentiment was reinforced by weak export demand, as USDA's latest export sales report showed shipments declined to 71.2 thousand running bales for the week ended September 10th. Meanwhile, Brazilian output for 2025/26 is estimated to reach a record 4.5 million tons of lint, according to Agroconsult, while exports of Brazilian cotton surged 37.3% year-on-year in August.