Corn Rises Toward 1-Month High

Corn futures rose to around $4.4 per bushel, moving back toward a one-month high after the USDA cut US corn ending stocks more than expected in its July WASDE report, signaling a tighter supply outlook. The agency lowered 2026/27 ending stocks by 170 million bushels to 1.8 billion, as stronger export demand more than offset a modest increase in production, while keeping the national yield unchanged at 183 bushels per acre. The USDA also maintained its forecast for 5.6 billion bushels of corn to be used for ethanol in 2026/27, underscoring resilient demand from the biofuel sector. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor weather across key US growing regions, with localized heat and uneven rainfall expected to influence yield prospects during the critical pollination stage. Overseas, persistent heat and drought further reduced yield prospects in France, with the USDA forecasting the country's smallest corn harvest in more than 30 years, adding to concerns over global supplies.

Corn futures fell to around $4.3 per bushel, pulling back from a one-month high reached on July 7 as traders took profits ahead of USDA's WASDE monthly report, despite higher crude oil prices. The retreat came despite increasingly bullish weather forecasts, with hotter and drier conditions expected to persist across parts of the US Midwest through late July, raising concerns over pollination during the crop's critical July 10–31 window. Weather concerns also intensified in Europe, where France's corn crop rating plunged to a 13-year low of 58% good-to-excellent following a record heatwave. Elsewhere, crude oil prices jumped after the US renewed strikes on Iran in retaliation for recent tanker attacks, limiting corn's downside as higher energy prices tend to support corn-based ethanol demand. Markets now await Friday's USDA WASDE report, which is expected to leave US corn production and yield forecasts largely unchanged, with 2026/27 ending stocks seen at around 1.96 billion bushels.

Corn futures surged to a fresh one-month high of $4.4 per bushel, after an intense heat wave damaged crops in France, one of the European Union's largest corn producers. FranceAgriMer reported deteriorating crop conditions after preliminary estimates indicated that extreme heat may have damaged nearly one-third of the country's corn crop, fueling expectations of tighter global supplies. Traders also monitored hotter temperatures across parts of the US, where any further deterioration in crop conditions could add to supply risks. Last week, the USDA estimated June 1 corn stocks at 5.295 billion bushels, below expectations, and projected planted acreage at 95.343 million acres, down from 2025. Markets now closely watch US-China trade developments after both countries agreed to include agricultural products in a reciprocal tariff reduction framework, boosting optimism for future US exports as Chinese buyers typically begin booking new-crop supplies from August.