Copper Rallies on Supply-Squeeze Fears

Copper futures slipped to below $5.6 per pound, retreating from a two-week high amid renewed concerns over economic growth after US President Donald Trump gave no clear timeline for ending the Iran conflict. Trump said Washington’s core objectives in the conflict were nearing completion, but gave no clear timeline for ending the war, while warning that the US could still strike Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. He added that the US did not need the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting it would reopen naturally once tensions ease, though concerns over the waterway kept energy markets volatile. Copper, which has recently moved inversely to oil, came under pressure as higher energy costs and supply disruption risks clouded the demand outlook. The metal is also down about 10% year-to-date, weighed by abundant supply and rising inventories, with LME stockpiles near six-year highs and SHFE holdings close to record levels.

Copper futures in the US rose past $5.6 per pound, extending the rebound from the three-month low of $5.34 in late March as de-escalatory rhetoric from US and Iranian authorities regarding their war improved the outlook for global manufacturing. Both US and Iranian presidents called for the end of the war should their respective conditions be met, raising hopes that an eventual resolution to the conflict would restart energy exports from the Persian Gulf and prevent a global stagflation crisis. Besides improving the outlook for factory activity, the pullback in the dollar on lower safety demand supported dollar-priced commodities. Still, copper remained 10% lower since the start of the year, as ample supply dimmed speculative bets that mining output will not keep up with datacenter and grid construction. Stockpiles at LME warehouses were close to their highest in six years, and those at the SHFE were near their highest on record.

Copper fell around $5.6 per pound on Wednesday, giving back earlier gains as the initial relief from easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East faded. Although US President Donald Trump suggested military strikes on Iran could wind down within two to three weeks, uncertainty around the conflict continued to weigh on sentiment. Broader demand concerns also persisted, even as hopes of reduced oil-driven inflation pressures briefly supported the outlook for industrial metals. A softer US dollar offered limited cushioning, but was not enough to offset overall caution in the market. In China, demand signals remained uneven, with inventory movements at the Shanghai Futures Exchange offering only modest reassurance about consumption trends. China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI for March also eased to 50.8, below expectations of 51.6 and down from 52.1 in February.