Cocoa Hits 4-week High

Cocoa futures traded around $3,100 per tonne, holding close to the lowest since May 2023, as market fundamentals remained pressured by expectations of a bumper West African crop. Weather conditions in the key producer Ivory Coast have been supporting a more positive outlook for the mid-crop cocoa harvest, which runs from March to August. Last week, rainfall volumes above the historical average were recorded across much of the country’s main producing regions, raising expectations for a longer and more productive harvest. Ample supplies are also weighing on cocoa prices, as ICE cocoa inventories rose to an 8-month high of 2,357,294 bags by March 27. Meanwhile, dealers noted that weak demand remains a concern, with the market awaiting Q1 European and North American grinding data, scheduled for release on April 16.

Cocoa futures traded around $3,100 per tonne, near the lowest since May 2023, pressured by expectations of a record harvest in West Africa and rising stockpiles. Reports from producers in Ivory Coast and Ghana indicate that frequent rains in the main producing regions have contributed to the good formation of pods, reinforcing the prospect of a comfortable supply in the short and medium term. At the same time, certified stocks monitored by ICE at US ports continued to increase, reaching a 7.5-month high of 2,335,682 bags by March 23. Global cocoa reserves are expanding as plentiful harvests coincide with sluggish consumption, limiting the potential for a sustained short-term price recovery. Meanwhile, market participants remained cautious about logistics risks linked to the Iran war.

Cocoa futures traded around $3,250 per tonne, near the lowest since July 2023, amid an improved supply outlook and evidence of ample supplies. Reports from West African farmers indicated that consistent rainfall has boosted cocoa pod development prospects in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Earlier this month, both countries slashed the fixed farmgate price paid to cocoa farmers aiming at boosting sales after global prices fell. Slowing global demand has accelerated cocoa stockpile accumulation, pushing key producers into crisis. In the meantime, latest data showed ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 7.5-month high of 2,307,127 bags by March 18, reinforcing the scenario of greater availability. Nevertheless, dealers noted that part of this increase still reflects a cautious demand from the global industry.