Coal Retreats from Multi-Month Highs

Coal prices climbed toward $120 per ton in mid-February, reaching their strongest levels in a year as China, the world’s largest producer and consumer, moved to streamline its coal sector amid signs of peaking consumption. Regulators approved a plan for China Shenhua Energy Co to acquire roughly $19 billion in assets from its parent, China Energy Investment Corp, including coal-to-chemicals, mining, power generation, and logistics operations. The transaction is set to deepen vertical integration and improve supply-chain efficiency, lifting Shenhua’s annual coal production capacity to 512 million tons. In the US, President Donald Trump moved to support the declining coal-fired power sector, directing $175 million in federal funds to upgrade six plants and instructing the Defense Department to purchase electricity from additional facilities.

Coal prices fell below $115 per ton, touching a near two-week low after US President Donald Trump unveiled plans to ramp up domestic coal production and increase reliance on coal-fired power plants to meet rising electricity demand. Trump directed the Defense Department to purchase electricity from coal plants to power military operations and allocated funds to upgrade six facilities. Meanwhile, the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association cut its 2026 coal import forecast to 465 million tons from 480 million projected three weeks ago. The group also expects domestic output to reach 4.86 billion tons this year, up from a record 4.8 billion tons last year, adding that production could rise further if imports decline sharply. The revised outlook follows Indonesia’s move to curb thermal coal shipments in an effort to stabilize prices, adding another layer of uncertainty to global supply dynamics.

Coal prices held above $115 per ton on Tuesday, hovering near one-year highs even after China’s main coal industry body cut its import outlook and flagged the potential for higher domestic output. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association lowered its 2026 coal import forecast to 465 million tons from 480 million tons projected about three weeks ago. The association also estimates that domestic production will reach 4.86 billion tons this year, up from a record 4.8 billion tons last year, noting output could be even higher if imports fall sharply. The revised projections followed moves by Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, to restrict shipments in an effort to support prices. Indonesia, which accounted for roughly 40% of China’s coal imports last year, is aiming to cut output by nearly a quarter this year to around 600 million tons.