Brent Holds Losses on Hopes for End to Iran War

Brent crude prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday, gaining nearly 4% to around $98 a barrel after plunging more than 8% to a near two-month low in the previous session. Traders continued to assess whether the Democratic Party's gains in the US midterm elections could improve prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Iran. Tehran is reviewing proposals delivered through regional mediators, although Washington and Tehran remain divided over the terms of a potential agreement. Meanwhile, shipping risks persist. At least five vessel-related incidents have been reported in the Persian Gulf since Sunday, with threats to commercial traffic continuing despite a recovery in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply conditions have improved considerably, with Gulf crude exports recovering towards pre-war levels, albeit at higher transportation costs. However, geopolitical risks surrounding these shipments remain unresolved.

Brent prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday, climbing to above $96 a barrel after plunging more than 8% in the previous session to a near two-month low. Traders continue to assess whether the Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections could improve prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the war with Iran. US Vice President JD Vance said voter frustration over the conflict and the US relationship with Israel had contributed to the Republicans' electoral defeat. Ahead of the election results on Tuesday, President Trump said he had no immediate plans to escalate military strikes. Nevertheless, geopolitical risks to supply remain elevated despite a recovery in exports from Gulf producers. Adding to concerns, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that two oil tankers and a tugboat had caught fire in separate incidents after allegedly attempting to navigate unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude traded around $95 per barrel on Thursday following a decline of nearly 9% in the previous session that pushed prices to a two-month low. The drop came as a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections fueled expectations that the Trump administration could face growing pressure to bring the war with Iran to an end. President Donald Trump acknowledged that Republicans suffered losses largely due to the conflict and pointed to rising gasoline prices as a major contributing factor, while indicating no immediate plans to ramp up military strikes against Iran. A Democratic-controlled Congress could limit military funding for operations in the Middle East, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer vowing to push for an end to the conflict. Meanwhile, crude exports from the Persian Gulf have begun recovering, with supply exceeding near-term demand. Overall, the international oil benchmark has fallen about 16% so far this week.