Brent Rises Past $103

Brent crude inched rose past $103 per barrel on Friday, the highest in two weeks as mounting supply risks counterbalanced temporary relief that the US would not escalate the conflict against Iran this month. Freight costs for tankers crossing the Persian Gulf soared to record highs, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined as maritime agencies flagged a series of attacks on vessels in the area. Ongoing conflict across the Middle East continued to disrupt OPEC+ output, curtailing crude flows to major refining hubs. Adding to supply concerns, recent EIA data showed that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a near-record low. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias forced operators in the Gulf of Mexico to shut in over 60% of the region's crude production capacity. These disruptions overshadowed the brief pullback triggered when US President Trump indicated that Iran would not face strikes before the midterm elections on November 3rd.

Brent prices fell to $103 a barrel on Friday, consolidating after a 4% gain in the previous session, amid easing concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. US President Trump said that Washington was engaged in “productive discussions” with Iran and would refrain from attacking the country ahead of the midterm elections. Meanwhile, reports indicated that Tehran’s foreign minister said Iran was reviewing the US response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Adding to the downward pressure, China is set to resume refined fuel exports in October following a brief suspension during the Golden Week holiday. On the other hand, threats to shipping through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz persist and supply risks continued in the Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Isaias forced producers to shut in approximately 1.3 million bpd as of Thursday, according to the US Marine Minerals Administration. For the week, Brent prices rose 2%.

Brent crude fell toward $103 per barrel on Friday, trimming gains from the previous session after President Donald Trump said on social media that the US was engaged in “productive discussions” with Iran and would refrain from attacking the country before the midterm elections. Trump also claimed that record volumes of crude were passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while stressing that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain fully in place. However, later reports indicated that the US had prepared plans for three days of strikes against Iran, targeting drone and missile stockpiles, energy infrastructure and other sites. On Thursday, Brent prices surged by as much as 5.7% as Tehran intensified attacks on tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, with nine vessels reportedly targeted over the past week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias threatened offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, prompting producers to shut in around 1.3 million barrels per day of crude output.