Brent Steadies as US-Iran Talks Continue

Brent stabilized near $78 per barrel on Tuesday after facing pressure in the previous session, as investors assessed signs of initial progress in ongoing peace negotiations between the US and Iran in Switzerland. In a key development, Washington granted Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, raising expectations of a quicker recovery in global supply. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also picked up, with producers including Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding alternative routes to export energy, while Iran shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week. Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear program remains a major point of contention after Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to admit nuclear inspectors, a claim Iranian officials have denied.

Brent crude oil extended losses to around $77.5 per barrel on Monday, hovering near its lowest level since early March, following reports that the US and Iran have agreed to a roadmap aimed at securing a final peace agreement within 60 days. In addition, the US Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil and petroleum products for 60 days, boosting expectations of a faster supply recovery. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased. Data showed millions of barrels still flowing through the chokepoint over the weekend. Iran has increased visible oil shipments through Hormuz to the highest level since the conflict began and cut prices for cargoes sold to China. Gulf producers are preparing to raise output, with Kuwait lifting force majeure notices and Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC resuming supply operations. A full reopening of Hormuz could release about 80 million barrels into the market, adding pressure to prices as demand remains weak.

Brent crude oil fell to around $78.2 per barrel on Monday, hovering near its lowest level since early March as easing geopolitical tensions and progress in US-Iran negotiations supported expectations of a gradual recovery in Persian Gulf supply flows. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks in Switzerland had made “major progress” toward stabilising the wider regional situation, despite earlier volatility and threats to suspend discussions. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan said both sides had agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a potential final agreement, alongside ongoing technical discussions and the establishment of a monitoring mechanism. Also, shipping data indicated continued movement through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Market participants also pointed to rising Iranian exports via the waterway, including discounted crude sales to China, as evidence of efforts to maintain market share despite the conflict.