Brent Holds Above $100

Brent crude prices rose toward $105 per barrel on Monday, marking a third consecutive session of gains after deadly attacks on Riyadh's airport prompted President Trump to consider joining Saudi Arabia in retaliating against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, raising fears of a broader regional conflict that could further disrupt global energy supplies. Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport was targeted again on Sunday by Iran-backed Houthi militants, a day after an earlier strike killed 12 people and injured more than 300. Meanwhile, a drone struck a tanker near the Sohar anchorage off Oman over the weekend, just outside the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire” that would take effect immediately. In the US, the Department of Energy announced approval of an emergency exchange involving up to 4 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves to help mitigate supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Isaias.

Brent crude prices wavered near $104 a barrel on Friday after US President Trump said Russian President Putin had agreed to release diesel supplies into the global market. The US Treasury Department said the Office of Foreign Assets Control was “immediately issuing a temporary general license” to allow Russian diesel supplies to reach global markets. The proposed volume would amount to about 22.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict has strained shipping, with a large tanker fleet tied up in ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz, pushing global freight rates to record highs and reducing vessel availability on other routes. Eleven tankers came under attack while transiting Hormuz during the week that ended October 4th. Trump said earlier this week that he would not strike Iran again before the November midterm elections, citing what he described as productive discussions with Tehran. On the week, brent rose about 1.5%.

Brent crude inched rose past $103 per barrel on Friday, the highest in two weeks as mounting supply risks counterbalanced temporary relief that the US would not escalate the conflict against Iran this month. Freight costs for tankers crossing the Persian Gulf soared to record highs, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined as maritime agencies flagged a series of attacks on vessels in the area. Ongoing conflict across the Middle East continued to disrupt OPEC+ output, curtailing crude flows to major refining hubs. Adding to supply concerns, recent EIA data showed that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a near-record low. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias forced operators in the Gulf of Mexico to shut in over 60% of the region's crude production capacity. These disruptions overshadowed the brief pullback triggered when US President Trump indicated that Iran would not face strikes before the midterm elections on November 3rd.