Brent Edges Lower on Diplomatic Hopes

Brent crude traded above $105.5 a barrel on Monday, the highest in more than two weeks, as escalating Middle East tensions heightened concerns over regional security. Saudi Arabia’s main airport came under attack again on Sunday, while another tanker was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. The incidents followed a phone call between Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers and came amid renewed fighting involving Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. Despite the security risks, oil exports from the Persian Gulf remained relatively resilient. Shipments reportedly recovered to 17.5 million bpd, around 98% of pre-war levels. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire. Moscow plans to export 500,000 tons of diesel, far below last year’s 28.6 million tons. The IEA urged governments to accelerate pledged diesel releases, warning that current market conditions require immediate attention ahead of its October 15 meeting.

Brent crude fell toward $103 per barrel on Monday, ending a two-session rally as expectations that Russian diesel supplies could help alleviate global fuel shortages weighed on prices. On Friday, President Donald Trump said his administration had reached an agreement for Russia to provide hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel fuel, signaling a partial easing of Moscow’s export ban. Trump also claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire” that would take effect immediately. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s main airport was targeted again on Sunday by Iran-backed Houthi militants, a day after an earlier strike killed 12 people and injured more than 300. The attacks prompted Trump to consider joining Saudi Arabia in retaliatory action against the Houthis in Yemen. However, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi reportedly reached out to his counterpart in Riyadh to discuss about the region’s recent escalation of events as well as the efforts to address it.

Brent crude fell below $104 per barrel on Monday, reversing earlier gains as investors shrugged off deadly attacks on Riyadh's airport which prompted President Trump to consider joining Saudi Arabia in retaliating against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport was targeted again on Sunday by Iran-backed Houthi militants, a day after an earlier strike killed 12 people and injured more than 300. Meanwhile, a drone struck a tanker near the Sohar anchorage off Oman over the weekend, just outside the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring still-elevated supply risks despite signs of higher crude exports from the Persian Gulf. Separately, Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire” that would take effect immediately. In the US, the Department of Energy announced approval of an emergency exchange involving up to 4 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves to help mitigate supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Isaias.