Uganda Leaves Key Policy Rate at 9.75%

The Bank of Uganda kept its key interest rate steady at 9.75% on February 9, 2026, marking a sixth straight hold, saying the stance remains appropriate to support growth while keeping inflation near target amid global uncertainty. The central bank noted that Inflation has remained below the medium-term target of 5%, reflecting the impact of prudent monetary policy and fiscal coordination, a stable exchange rate, declining global inflation, and favorable food and energy prices. Headline inflation edged up to 3.2% in January from 3.1% in December and is projected to remain slightly below target in 2026, within a 3.8%-4.3% range, before stabilizing over the medium term. However, the central bank cautioned that risks remain elevated, including stronger domestic demand and geopolitical uncertainty. Growth is projected at 6.5%-7% in FY2025/26, with medium-term growth expected to rise to around 8% on increased public investment and oil-related infrastructure projects.

The Bank of Uganda maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 9.75% on November 10, 2025, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no adjustments. The decision was aimed at containing inflation while also supporting economic growth amidst global uncertainties. Inflation has remained relatively subdued in recent months, dipping to a seven-month low of 3.4% in October. Core inflation fell to its lowest since March 2024 at 3.4%. The central bank revised down its core inflation forecast for 2025/26 to 4%–4.5%, from the August estimate of 4.5%–4.8%. Economic growth is now seen around 6.5%-7% in this fiscal year, up from an earlier forecast of 6%-6.5%.

The Bank of Uganda kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 9.75% on August 12, 2025, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change, amid global economic uncertainties and rising inflation risks. Both headline and core inflation declined slightly to 3.8% and 4.1% in July 2025, respectively, from 3.9% and 4.2% in June 2025. Policymakers noted that annual headline and core inflation averaged 3.4% and 3.9% over the past twelve months, remaining below the medium-term target of 5%, but trade tariffs pose significant risks to the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the central bank highlighted the economy’s resilience, citing robust trade momentum and steady confidence levels. Real GDP growth is expected to range between 6.0% and 6.5% in FY2025/26, with further strengthening projected over the medium term.