Uganda - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Uganda including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Uganda economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.28 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 percent
Inflation Rate 3.00 3 3.7 4.7 4.9 6 percent
Interest Rate 9.00 9 9 8.5 8.5 6.75 percent
Balance of Trade -254.50 -253 -251 -246 -241 -201 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 36.90 36 36 36 36 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 3625.00
3662 3684 3706 3728 3818
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30
percent
1.7 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.50
percent
5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9
GDP 25.53
USD Billion
27.17 26.45 25.72 25 21.5
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 14514.00
UGX Billion
13657 13906 14154 14403 14394
GDP per capita 662.10
USD
660 662 665 667 673
GDP per capita PPP 1713.90
USD
1706 1714 1721 1728 1740
GDP Constant Prices 16290.26
UGX Billion
16603 16717 16696 16665 15915
GDP From Agriculture 3257.83
UGX Billion
2375 3132 3250 2804 2742
GDP From Construction 962.17
UGX Billion
955 970 952 967 946
GDP From Manufacturing 1153.55
UGX Billion
1099 1099 1112 1119 1096
GDP From Mining 221.65
UGX Billion
212 211 210 209 200
GDP From Public Administration 485.57
UGX Billion
475 472 471 469 456
GDP From Services 7940.83
UGX Billion
7744 7831 7858 7781 7698
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.28
percent
2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Population 41.49
Million
43.3 43.3 43.3 43.3 45.88
Living Wage Family 1408900.00
UGX/Month
1408900 1408900 1408900 1408900 1408900
Living Wage Individual 784800.00
UGX/Month
784800 784800 784800 784800 784800
Employment Rate 47.80
percent
49.57 47.8 46.03 44.26 80.91
Wages High Skilled 1777300.00
UGX/Month
1708731 1619264 1529797 1440329 1457168
Wages Low Skilled 430900.00
UGX/Month
391999 397991 403982 409973 390720
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.00
percent
3 3.7 4.7 4.9 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 169.70
Index Points
170 169 169 168 162
Food Inflation 2.70
percent
1.92 2.61 3.69 4.57 6.19
Import Prices 136.31
Index points
136 136 135 134 128
Producer Prices 186.04
Index Points
184 183 184 184 184
Producer Prices Change 4.30
percent
5.7 5.5 5.3 5 6.1
Inflation Rate Mom -0.30
percent
0.39 0.55 0.59 0.61 0.61
Export Prices 176.63
Index points
177 175 174 173 162
Core Consumer Prices 164.90
Index Points
165 166 165 165 160
Core Inflation Rate 3.00
percent
3.6 4.78 5.88 6.65 7.29
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 9.00
percent
9 9 8.5 8.5 6.75
Money Supply M2 15332.30
UGX Billion
15957 16278 16438 16513 16387
Money Supply M3 21396.70
UGX Billion
22111 22499 22702 22803 22625
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3654.45
USD Million
3655 3651 3646 3641 3577
Loans to Private Sector 12458.30
SHS Billion
12601 12628 12629 12619 12406
Deposit Interest Rate 13.20
percent
12.7 12.88 13.06 13.23 13.86
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -254.50
USD Million
-253 -251 -246 -241 -201
Exports 298.02
USD Million
292 291 289 288 274
Imports 552.50
USD Million
546 546 544 542 517
Current Account -307.70
USD Million
-263 -279 -271 -262 -247
Current Account to GDP -8.70
percent
-6.87 -7.32 -7.78 -8.23 -6.19
Terms of Trade 129.58
Index Points
126 123 120 118 111
Tourist Arrivals 1323.00
Thousand
1300 1300 1300 1300 1300
Terrorism Index 4.32
4.4 4.2 4.01 3.81 4.54
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 36.90
percent
36 36 36 36 35
Government Budget -4.90
percent of GDP
-4.18 -4.21 -4.25 -4.28 -3.67
Military Expenditure 398.50
USD Million
371 375 379 384 344
Government Spending 5188.41
UGX billion
4506 4485 4465 4444 4745
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 57.76
Index Points
57.78 57.81 57.84 55.4 57.7
Leading Economic Index 210.34
Index Points
217 223 228 232 245
Internet Speed 2353.31
KBps
2514 2662 2638 2546 2422
IP Addresses 20690.00
IP
18479 19089 18690 18202 16765
Ease of Doing Business 122.00
118 117 115 114 125
Corruption Index 25.00
Points
24 24 24 24 25
Corruption Rank 151.00
143 144 145 146 146
Changes In Inventories 197.42
UGX billion
196 200 204 208 177
Competitiveness Index 3.70
Points
3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.54
Competitiveness Rank 114.00
116 116 116 116 122
Composite Pmi 52.00
52.29 53.06 52.7 52.84 52.81
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Private Sector Credit 12512706.00
UGX Million
12668963 12702294 12699080 12676265 12168863
Consumer Spending 42691.40
UGX billion
42240 42269 42298 42327 45307
Consumer Credit 2199116.82
SHS Million
2194358 2183939 2172962 2162035 2040120
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00
percent
39 39 39 39 37
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 80.96
mm
65.07 128 109 97.75 102
Temperature 23.42
celsius
24.02 23.01 22.39 22.92 23.6