This page has economic forecasts for Uganda including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Uganda economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.10 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 percent
Inflation Rate 3.00 4 5.2 3.5 4 6 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 8 7.5 6.75 percent
Balance of Trade -258.60 -266 -267 -268 -268 -268 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.60 36 37 37 37 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 3725.23
3828 3842 3855 3869 3923
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90
percent
1.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.00
percent
6 6 6.1 6.5 5.9
GDP 25.89
USD Billion
27 28.5 28.5 28.5 30
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 23903.00
UGX Billion
25337 25337 25361 25457 28576
GDP per capita 666.61
USD
673 691 691 678 690
GDP per capita PPP 1697.70
USD
1715 1789 1789 1727 1757
GDP Constant Prices 15718.25
UGX Billion
16181 16356 16677 16740 18249
GDP From Agriculture 3285.28
UGX Billion
3291 2614 3486 3499 3712
GDP From Construction 1072.06
UGX Billion
1093 1078 1137 1142 1232
GDP From Manufacturing 1117.64
UGX Billion
1186 1188 1186 1190 1338
GDP From Mining 263.00
UGX Billion
282 281 279 280 318
GDP From Public Administration 512.67
UGX Billion
558 546 544 546 629
GDP From Services 8276.09
UGX Billion
8450 8490 8781 8814 9530
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.10
percent
2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3
Population 42.86
Million
43.3 42.81 42.8 42.79 42.7
Wages High Skilled 1216600.00
UGX/Month
1817300 1817300 1628290 1697802 1859522
Wages Low Skilled 412400.00
UGX/Month
440000 440000 479510 494774 445000
Living Wage Family 1368500.00
UGX/Month
1368500 1508900 1368500 1368500 1508900
Living Wage Individual 652200.00
UGX/Month
652200 652200 652200 652200 652200
Employment Rate 47.80
percent
44.26 45.45 46.65 47.84 73.88
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.00
percent
4 5.2 3.5 4 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 174.50
Index Points
177 179 178 182 198
Food Inflation -1.20
percent
-0.3 1 1.2 1.4 -0.56
Import Prices 132.99
Index points
132 132 132 132 132
Producer Prices 183.67
Index Points
191 192 193 192 212
Producer Prices Change -1.70
percent
3.5 4 4.2 4.5 6.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.80
percent
0.41 0.63 0.53 0.57 0.56
Export Prices 162.92
Index points
165 165 165 165 165
Cpi Housing Utilities 197.09
Index Points
198 200 202 205 228
Cpi Transportation 157.79
Index Points
160 161 163 165 179
Core Consumer Prices 169.70
Index Points
174 174 175 181 195
Core Inflation Rate 3.50
percent
5 5.5 6 6.5 5
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 8 7.5 6.75
Money Supply M2 15649.20
UGX Billion
15792 15676 15791 15671 15774
Money Supply M3 22218.00
UGX Billion
22393 22171 22357 22155 22323
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3292.57
USD Million
3220 3271 3240 3260 3252
Loans to Private Sector 13440.00
SHS Billion
13763 14003 14240 14475 16488
Deposit Interest Rate 9.32
percent
9.17 9.17 7.17 6.67 5.92
Money Supply M1 9484.60
UGX Billion
9546 9462 9515 9444 9498
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -258.60
USD Million
-266 -267 -268 -268 -268
Exports 300.12
USD Million
298 299 299 299 299
Imports 558.80
USD Million
562 566 567 567 567
Current Account -590.10
USD Million
-420 -439 -455 -456 -447
Current Account to GDP -5.40
percent
-4.5 -4 -4 -4 -5.6
Terms of Trade 122.50
Index Points
125 125 125 125 125
Tourist Arrivals 1449.00
Thousand
1500 1500 1500 1500 1700
Terrorism Index 4.32
4.32 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.32
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.60
percent
36 37 37 37 35
Government Budget -3.30
percent of GDP
-3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3
Military Expenditure 443.90
USD Million
434 435 437 439 473
Government Spending 4061.31
UGX billion
4305 4305 4309 4325 4855
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 56.73
Index Points
55.4 58.97 59.25 59.04 57.7
Leading Economic Index 220.00
Index Points
225 229 232 234 244
Internet Speed 2353.31
KBps
2771 2828 2885 2941 3417
IP Addresses 20690.00
IP
20710 20637 20421 20712 20565
Ease of Doing Business 127.00
124 124 124 124 123
Corruption Index 26.00
Points
26 26 26 26 26
Corruption Rank 151.00
151 151 151 151 151
Changes In Inventories 197.42
UGX billion
207 210 212 215 235
Competitiveness Index 46.80
Points
47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 49.8
Competitiveness Rank 117.00
117 117 117 117 117
Composite Pmi 56.60
52.81 53.24 53.07 53.13 53.12
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Private Sector Credit 13495559.00
UGX Million
13804300 13910113 13966842 13996746 14029865
Consumer Spending 42035.00
UGX Billion
44557 44557 44599 44767 50253
Consumer Credit 2402009.47
SHS Million
2405920 2414536 2408426 2414895 2408983
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00
percent
40 40 40 40 40
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 80.96
mm
97.75 65.2 107 107 102
Temperature 23.42
celsius
22.92 24.07 23.61 23.61 23.6



Uganda - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook