Uganda - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Uganda including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Uganda economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.10 2.25 2.27 2.3 2.3 2.4 percent
Inflation Rate 1.80 3.7 4.7 4.9 5.2 6 percent
Interest Rate 9.00 9 8.5 8.5 8 6.75 percent
Balance of Trade -254.70 -253 -171 -236 -264 -231 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.60 36 36 36 37 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 3717.00
3708 3731 3754 3777 3872
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
1.3 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.60
percent
5.8 5.8 5.8 7 5.9
GDP 25.53
USD Billion
26.9 26.05 25.2 24.1 23.8
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 14514.00
UGX Billion
15356 15356 16246 15530 18151
GDP per capita 662.10
USD
665 684 670 691 697
GDP per capita PPP 1713.90
USD
1721 1727 1734 1789 1805
GDP Constant Prices 15300.82
UGX Billion
15729 17235 16188 16372 18086
GDP From Agriculture 3110.66
UGX Billion
3364 3447 3291 3328 3677
GDP From Construction 1046.36
UGX Billion
1032 1018 1107 1120 1237
GDP From Manufacturing 1162.93
UGX Billion
1192 1220 1230 1244 1375
GDP From Mining 238.87
UGX Billion
216 235 253 256 282
GDP From Public Administration 500.05
UGX Billion
498 514 529 535 591
GDP From Services 8011.28
UGX Billion
8143 8401 8476 8572 9470
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.10
percent
2.25 2.27 2.3 2.3 2.4
Population 41.49
Million
43.3 43.3 43.3 41.43 41.28
Wages High Skilled 1777300.00
UGX/Month
1817300 1817300 1817300 1817300 1859522
Wages Low Skilled 430900.00
UGX/Month
440000 440000 440000 440000 445000
Living Wage Family 1408900.00
UGX/Month
1408900 1408900 1408900 1508900 1508900
Living Wage Individual 784800.00
UGX/Month
784800 784800 784800 784800 784800
Employment Rate 47.80
percent
47.8 46.03 44.26 45.45 73.88
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.80
percent
3.7 4.7 4.9 5.2 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 171.00
Index Points
174 177 179 179 200
Food Inflation -1.60
percent
-1.2 -0.8 2.5 4 5.56
Import Prices 137.96
Index points
132 134 135 134 134
Producer Prices 183.41
Index Points
193 197 193 193 217
Producer Prices Change 1.20
percent
5.5 5.3 5 5.25 6.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.12 0.16 0.16 0.19 0.18
Export Prices 182.67
Index points
179 179 179 179 179
Core Consumer Prices 164.70
Index Points
166 166 168 166 172
Core Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
1.33 1.3 1.25 1.26 1.25
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 9.00
percent
9 8.5 8.5 8 6.75
Money Supply M2 15032.50
UGX Billion
13802 13807 13985 14060 14005
Money Supply M3 21192.60
UGX Billion
19652 19518 19746 19935 19862
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3600.55
USD Million
3547 3461 3420 3411 3427
Loans to Private Sector 12713.80
SHS Billion
12297 11942 11955 12140 12135
Deposit Interest Rate 9.70
percent
13.79 13.55 13.31 13.19 13.18
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -254.70
USD Million
-253 -171 -236 -264 -231
Exports 304.67
USD Million
273 302 270 284 283
Imports 559.30
USD Million
526 473 509 548 514
Current Account -341.00
USD Million
-327 -327 -327 -327 -327
Current Account to GDP -8.70
percent
-8.33 -7.32 -8.54 -6.69 -6.62
Terms of Trade 132.41
Index Points
135 133 133 134 133
Tourist Arrivals 1323.00
Thousand
1300 1300 1300 1300 1300
Terrorism Index 4.32
4.27 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.60
percent
36 36 36 37 35
Government Budget -3.30
percent of GDP
-4.51 -4.5 -4.49 -4.49 -4.59
Military Expenditure 443.90
USD Million
406 391 375 376 385
Government Spending 5188.41
UGX billion
5489 5489 5808 5552 6489
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 56.29
Index Points
54.8 57.1 55.4 57.35 57.7
Leading Economic Index 213.25
Index Points
207 204 202 203 205
Internet Speed 2353.31
KBps
2655 2714 2771 2828 3417
IP Addresses 20690.00
IP
20990 20225 20710 20637 20565
Ease of Doing Business 122.00
122 122 122 122 122
Corruption Index 26.00
Points
25 25 25 25 25
Corruption Rank 151.00
151 151 151 151 151
Changes In Inventories 197.42
UGX billion
200 204 208 209 162
Competitiveness Index 3.70
Points
3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69
Competitiveness Rank 114.00
113 113 113 113 113
Composite Pmi 51.80
52.09 54.3 53.27 53.05 53.38
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Private Sector Credit 12769558.00
UGX Million
12355320 12000255 12022775 12219579 12179753
Consumer Spending 42691.40
UGX billion
45168 45168 47787 45680 53390
Consumer Credit 2209410.70
SHS Million
2154602 2092545 2060554 2075454 2146054
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00
percent
40 40 40 39 37
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 80.96
mm
128 109 97.75 65.2 102
Temperature 23.42
celsius
23.01 22.39 22.92 24.07 23.6