Uganda | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Uganda including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Uganda economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.28 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 5.30 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 6 percent [+]
Interest Rate 9.50 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 10 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -223.20 -210 -206 -203 -201 -180 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 36.90 38 36 36 36 35 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 3644.00 3580 3540 3510 3472 3074 [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.50 4.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 percent [+]
GDP 25.53 25 24.75 24.5 24.25 21.5 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 14514.00 14403 14494 14586 14678 14394 UGX Billion [+]
GDP per capita 662.10 667 668 669 670 673 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 1713.90 1728 1730 1732 1735 1740 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14866.68 14903 14884 14824 14759 14027 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3180.01 2887 2343 3166 3652 2829 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 975.16 964 924 957 923 925 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1127.07 1106 1080 1091 1095 1079 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 204.56 200 198 197 195 185 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 470.58 460 452 454 450 436 UGX Billion [+]
GDP From Services 7696.22 7490 7545 7626 7555 7450 UGX Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.28 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 percent [+]
Population 41.49 42.75 43.3 43.3 43.3 45.88 Million [+]
Wages High Skilled 720000.00 720000 720000 720000 720000 720000 UGX/Month [+]
Employment Rate 47.80 44.26 45.45 46.65 47.84 80.91 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 5.30 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 168.90 170 171 170 170 165 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 10.00 8.81 7.95 7.4 7.05 6.49 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00 0.44 0.51 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Import Prices 132.41 131 131 130 130 126 Index points [+]
Producer Prices 291.80 292 292 291 290 282 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.51 9.46 9.89 9.95 9.82 9.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 180.14 177 176 175 174 166 Index points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 163.40 163 162 162 161 156 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.10 4.56 5.53 6.4 6.99 7.42 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 9.50 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 10 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 14215.90 14838 14975 15039 15064 14954 UGX Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 20098.20 20822 20987 21068 21101 20934 UGX Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3374.68 3371 3366 3360 3355 3306 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 12069.69 12174 12181 12174 12160 11996 SHS Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 13.20 13.23 13.36 13.48 13.6 13.86 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -223.20 -210 -206 -203 -201 -180 USD Million [+]
Exports 260.48 264 263 262 260 250 USD Million [+]
Imports 483.70 483 479 477 475 457 USD Million [+]
Current Account -347.10 -248 -254 -268 -257 -235 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -8.70 -8.23 -8.08 -7.93 -7.77 -6.19 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 136.04 128 124 121 119 111 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1303.00 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 Thousand [+]
Terrorism Index 4.33 4.96 4.77 4.57 4.38 4.82 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 36.90 38 36 36 36 35 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.60 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.81 -2.31 percent of GDP [+]
Military Expenditure 398.50 384 378 373 367 344 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 5188.41 4444 4342 4241 4139 4745 UGX billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 59.07 56 59.07 59.07 59.08 57.7 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.48 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.55 0.55 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 115.00 114 113 111 109 122 [+]
Corruption Index 25.00 24 24 24 24 25 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 151.00 146 147 148 148 146 [+]
Changes In Inventories 197.42 208 209 211 213 177 UGX billion [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.70 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.59 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 114.00 116 116 116 116 125 [+]
Composite Pmi 53.80 51.86 53.06 52.38 52.68 52.6 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Private Sector Credit 12166664.00 12286943 12295698 12279971 12250822 11873052 UGX Million [+]
Consumer Spending 42691.40 42327 42841 43356 43871 45307 UGX billion [+]
Consumer Credit 2121143.89 2114950 2104554 2093106 2081626 1984338 SHS Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 214.80 171 168 165 162 146 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 40.00 38.31 37.94 37.58 37.21 34.46 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]