Uganda’s Q3 GDP Growth Weakest Since 2023

Uganda's economy expanded by 8.5% year-on-year in Q4 2025, picking up from 4.8% growth in Q3 and marking the strongest expansion since Q3 2022. The acceleration was driven by strong consumer demand and robust activity in construction and other sectors. Sector-wise, agriculture grew 8.8%, supported by a 12.6% increase in cash crop production, particularly coffee and cocoa. Industrial output advanced 12.3%, led by manufacturing (8.9%) and a sharp 19.4% rise in construction. Meanwhile, services expanded 6.2%, up from 2.2% previously, driven by gains in trade, repair services, and real estate. On the expenditure side, final consumption rose 17.4%, driven by a 20.1% increase in household spending. Gross fixed capital formation also grew 15.6%, supported by higher investment in dwellings and other structures. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 4%, accelerating from 1.9% in the previous period.

Uganda's economy expanded by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, easing from 5.5% growth in the prior period. This marked the weakest expansion since Q1 2023, due to a slowdown in agriculture, forestry, and fishing (3.1% vs 3.5%) and industrial activities (6.0% vs 7.6%). Meanwhile, services activity accelerated (5.7% vs 5.0%). On the expenditure side, household consumption (12.3% vs 8.6% in Q2), government spending (19.7% vs 13.5%), and fixed investment growth (13.2% vs 9.1%) all accelerated. Final consumption expenditure remained the leading contributor to growth, accounting for 83.4% of GDP expenditure. Meanwhile, external trade weighed on growth, with exports and imports rising by 69.6% and 49.3%, respectively. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP grew by 1.6% in Q3, rebounding from an upwardly revised 0.8% contraction in Q2.

Uganda's economy advanced by 5.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slowing from a downwardly revised 8.4% growth in the prior period, which was the fastest expansion rate since Q3 2022. The moderation in GDP growth was driven by softer increases in household consumption (8.6% vs 21.8% in Q1) and government spending (13.5% vs 35.1%), while fixed investment growth accelerated (9.1% vs 8.7%). Meanwhile, external trade weighed on growth, with exports growing by 51.2% (vs 26.2%) but less than imports, which surged by 66.4% (vs -0.8%). On the other hand, changes in inventories rose more slowly (7.6% vs 9.0%). Production-wise, output growth moderated for agriculture, forestry & fishing (3.5% vs 10.3%) and services (5.0% vs 8.7%). Meanwhile, industry activities grew faster (7.6% vs 7.4%). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP contracted by 0.7% in Q2, reversing from a downwardly revised 3.5% gain in Q1, marking the first quarterly contraction since Q1 of 2023.