South Korean Won Set for Strong Weekly Gain

The South Korean won traded near 1,480 per dollar and remained on course for a weekly gain of nearly 2%, underpinned by improved regional risk sentiment despite lingering geopolitical and energy-related headwinds. Markets continued to assess a fragile de-escalation as the Strait of Hormuz remained only partially reopened, while South Korean equities posted their strongest weekly performance in over 17 years, reinforcing broader risk appetite. The Bank of Korea’s decision to hold rates at 2.5% also helped anchor policy expectations. Meanwhile, gains were capped by elevated oil prices near $100 per barrel and ongoing shipping disruptions, which kept import-cost and inflation pressures elevated. Around 26 South Korean vessels remain stranded in the region, with Seoul preparing to dispatch a special envoy to Iran. At the same time, foreign flows were uneven, as equity inflows provided partial support but did not fully translate into sustained demand for the currency.

The South Korean won hovered around 1,480 per dollar, edging lower from a four-week high in the previous session amid lingering doubts over the tentative US-Iran ceasefire. Investor caution persisted as both sides have disputed aspects of the agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz has yet to fully reopen, leaving the ceasefire’s durability in question. Meanwhile, overseas inflows into Korean equities have continued, providing support to the currency, while softer oil prices are easing cost pressures for South Korea’s import-dependent economy. Domestic fundamentals remain strong, with February’s current account posting a record surplus of $23.19 billion, led by semiconductor exports. Strategists noted that if foreign inflows persist and geopolitical risks remain contained, the won could trend toward 1,450–1,420 this quarter, though renewed tensions could quickly reverse the move.

The South Korean won strengthened to around 1,479 per dollar, rebounding sharply to its highest level since March, as easing geopolitical tensions and robust external fundamentals reinforced investor confidence in the won. The tentative US-Iran two-week ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a significant retreat in global oil prices, easing inflationary pressures and lifting risk sentiment across Asia. The improved outlook encouraged investors to increase exposure to regional assets, with the won benefiting from renewed capital inflows. Strategists now see the won potentially climbing toward 1,450–1,420 this quarter if inflows hold and oil stays low. Additionally, South Korea posted a record monthly current account surplus of $23.19 billion in February, driven by strong semiconductor exports and overall trade performance. This marked the largest surplus on record, highlighting the country’s resilient external position and reinforcing the won’s medium-term stability.