Latest News Stream - Nfib Business Optimism Index

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down to 97.8 in October 2026 from 97.9 in September, a new low since June and compared to forecasts of 97.7. “There was little change in optimism among small businesses in October as owners navigated enduring challenges, though there were some encouraging developments,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. The percent of small business owners reporting the quality or availability of labor as their top operating problem decreased 1 point to 25%, making it the top reported issue for the fourth consecutive month. The second top issue was taxes, which rose notably from September. 21% of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, the highest level since May 2021. On the other hand, expectations for better business conditions improved, after two months of deterioration. A net 8% of owners expect better business conditions over the next six months, up 2 points from September.

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 97.9 in September 2026, the lowest in three months, from 98.7 in August and roughly in line with forecasts of 98. Of the 10 Index components, three rose, six fell, and one stayed unchanged. The Index declined mainly as businesses became less optimistic about future conditions and fewer firms considered it a good time to expand. Reports of labor quality or availability as owners’ single most important problem rose 3 points to 26%, making it the top reported issue for the third consecutive month. The second top issue was inflation, with 20% of owners reporting it as their single most important problem, up 4 points from August. "Small business owners are proceeding with caution as they interpret how rising costs, interest rates, and the difficulty in finding qualified employees are impacting their business”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.7 in August 2026 from 99.8 in July and below forecasts of 99.3. Actual sales worsened, with a net negative 9% of owners reporting higher nominal sales in the past three months, the lowest since November 2025. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem increased to 16%, now tying with taxes as the second top small business issue. Reports of “labor quality or availability” and “labor costs” as owners’ single most important problem eased, with “labor costs” dropping to its lowest level since March 2021. In addition, expectations for better business conditions deteriorated. “Uncertainty remains elevated among small business owners as they face a mixed set of challenges with weakened sales, supply chain disruptions, and inflation pressures. While expectations for the overall economy dimmed, Main Street owners remain largely positive in the health of their own businesses”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 99.8 in July 2026, the highest since August last year, compared to 97.4 in June and beating forecasts of 97.5. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, eight increased, and two decreased. Hiring plans hit their highest level since October 2022 and contributed most to the rise in the Index, with a net 20% of owners planning to create new jobs over the next three months, up 9 points from June. In July, the top reported issue was labor quality or availability. Also, both actual and planned price increases dropped notably from June. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 7 points to a net 31% and a net 28% plan to increase prices, down 4 points from June. Real sales expectations and reports of inventory levels as “too low” both fell by 2 points. However, the Uncertainty Index rose 2 points, driven by an increase in owners reporting uncertainty about whether it is a good time to expand and capital expenditure plans.

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 97.4 in June 2026, the highest in four months, compared to 95.3 in May and forecasts of 95.8. Expectations for better business conditions and real sales improved substantially. 21% of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, up 3 points from May and marking the highest reading since October 2024. Inflation ranks as the top problem. Still, the share of owners planning to raise prices in the near future declined. Also, the net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months rose 10 points to a net 13%. “Lower fuel costs provide welcome relief for businesses as well as consumers, with firms anticipating improved operating conditions over the next six months. While there have been improvements in the overall environment, high interest rates and modest economic growth are causing owners to approach hiring and capital spending with caution”, said NFIB Chief Economist.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US held steady at 95.9 in April 2026, barely changed from March’s 11-month low of 95.8 and slightly below market expectations of 96.1. The index remained below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index dropped by 4 points to 88, though it stayed well above its historical average of 68. The Employment Index declined for a second straight month, while there were reports of both actual and planned price increases rising. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted, “Inflationary pressures continue to be a challenge for Main Street. While small business optimism remains fragile, the benefits of the Working Families Tax Cut Act should start to support the private sector in the coming months.”

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell to 95.8 points in March 2026, the lowest since April 2025 from 98.8 in February and below forecast of 98.6. The reading is now below its 52-year average of 98, as "the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. Also, the Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, well above its historical average of 68. The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 11 points to a net -25% and the net % of owners expecting better business conditions fell 7 points to a net 11%, the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since October 2024. On the other hand, “the 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners”, Bill Dunkelberg added.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell for a second month to 98.8 in February 2026 from 99.3 in January and below forecasts of 99.7. “Although optimism declined slightly, small businesses report feeling more certain as they look toward the coming months. High sales and increased profits made February a more positive month for many owners, but competition from large businesses is putting stress on Main Street firms as they navigate the current economic climate”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 8 points to a net 8%. Also, 15% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 1 point from January. The last time labor quality, reported as the top issue, was this low was in April 2020. 59% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, a decrease of 3 points from January.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell to 99.3 in January 2026 from 99.5 in December 2025, compared to forecasts of 99.9. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. Expected real sales volume was the only component with substantial change, increasing by 6 points to a net 16%. In addition, 16% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 3 points from December. Also, 13% reported the cost or availability of insurance as their single most important problem, up 4 points. The last time insurance reached this percentage was December 2018. 60% reported capital outlays in the last six months, up 4 points from December and the highest level since November 2023. "While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth. Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales", according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose for a second consecutive month, reaching 99.5 in December 2025, its highest level since August and in line with market expectations. The index remains above its 52-year average of 98, supported primarily by a rise in owners expecting better business conditions, which jumped 9 points to a net 24%. Reports of positive profit trends also improved slightly, rising 3 points from November to a net negative 20%. When evaluating the overall health of their businesses, 9% of owners rated it excellent (down 2 points), 54% rated it good (up 1 point), 34% rated it fair (up 4 points), and 3% rated it poor (down 2 points). However, plans for hiring, capital outlays, and expectations for higher real sales all declined. Taxes were cited as the most important problem by 20% of small business owners, up 6 points from November and the highest reading since May 2021. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index fell 7 points to 84, marking its lowest level since June 2024.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US rose to 99 in November 2025, the highest in 3 months, compared to 98.2 in October, and beating forecasts of 98.4. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 9 points to a net 15%. Meanwhile, 21% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 6 points from the previous month. When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 11% reported it as excellent (down 1 point), and 53% as good (up 2 points). Meanwhile, the net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 13 points to a net 34%, the highest reading since March 2023. On the other hand, the net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 5 points to 15%. “Although optimism increased, small business owners are still frustrated by the lack of qualified workers. Despite this, more firms still plan to create new jobs in the near future”, according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell for the first time in three months to 98.8 in September 2025 from 100.8 in August and well below forecasts of 100.5. The reading signalled a decline in optimism among small business owners, with supply chain disruptions and inflation emerging as the main concerns. 14% of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem and 64% reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree. One bright spot was actual earnings changes, which increased to its highest level since December 2021. "While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations", NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points to 100.8 in August 2025, the highest since January but slightly below market expectations of 101.0, with owners reporting stronger sales expectations and improved earnings. The net share expecting higher real sales volumes rose 6 points to 12%, while wage pressures remained evident: a net 29% of owners raised compensation (up 2 points from July), while 20% plan to do so over the next three months (up 3 points), raising the risk that inflation could prove stickier as costs are passed through. Meanwhile, labor quality remained the top concern on Main Street, cited by 21% of owners as their biggest problem, unchanged from July. In addition, 32% reported job openings they could not fill, down 1 point from July but still historically high. The last time this measure fell below 32% was in July 2020.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US came in at 98.6 in June 2025, below 98.8 in May and forecasts of 98.7, but holding slightly above the 51-year average of 98. A substantial increase in respondents reporting excess inventories contributed the most to the decline in the index. 19% of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up one point from May and ranking as the top problem again. The last time taxes reached 19 percent was in July 2021. In addition, many others are still concerned about labor quality and high labor costs. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell three points to 22%. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell three points to 7% and 21% plan capital outlays in the next six months, down one point from May. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index decreased by five points to 89.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US increased to 98.8 in May 2025, the highest in three months, compared to 95.8 in April and forecasts of 95.9. "Although optimism recovered slightly in May, uncertainty is still high among small business owners. While the economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty are resolved, owners reported more positive expectations on business conditions and sales growth", NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelber said. Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up two points from April and ranking as the top problem. The last time taxes were ranked as the top single most important problem was in December 2020. In addition, the net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 10 points from April to 25%. Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from April.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 1.6 points from the previous month to 95.8 in April of 2025, the lowest since October of 2024, but slightly ahead of market expectations that it would drop to 94.5. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index fell by 4 points to 92 and extend the pullback from February's record high, although the reading remained far above the historical average of 68, as businesses remain alert to the unpredictability of domestic trade policy. The portion of business owners expecting improved business conditions fell by 6 points to a net rate of 15%, owed to the higher tariffs mandated by the US government. Additionally, the percent of business owners expecting higher real sales fell 4 points to a net -1%. On the jobs front, 34% of owners reported job openings they could not refill, a 6 point-point decline for march, to lower job openings to their least since 2021.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.3 points to 97.4 in March 2025, its lowest level since October 2024 and well below the market expectation of 101.3. This also marks the largest decline since June 2022. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index fell to 96, down eight points from February’s second-highest reading on record. Small business owners have tempered their sales growth expectations, with a decline of 11 points to a net 3%, as they gain a clearer understanding of how new policy priorities affect their operations. Additionally, the percentage of owners anticipating better business conditions dropped 16 points to a net 21%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest drop since December 2020. Other decreases were recorded for: earnings trends (-4 points to a net -28%); plans to increase employment (-3 points to 12%); now a good time to expand (-3 points to 9%); current inventory (-2 points to -7%); expected credit conditions (-1 point to -4%).