Latest News Stream - GDP Growth Rate

Indonesia’s economy grew 1.59% qoq in Q3 2026, sharply slowing from a 3.73% rise in the previous period but surpassing market estimates of 1.3%. Private consumption contracted (-0.57% vs 2.69% in Q2), amid higher borrowing costs and deepening job cuts in some sectors. Government spending was also weak (-1.59% vs 15.08%), reflecting typical seasonal patterns. Still, fixed investment gained momentum (5.56% vs 5.0%), and net trade contributed positively, as exports continued to rise (7.49% vs 8.41%) while imports fell (-2.30% vs 13.11%). By sector, output slowed for utilities (2.75% vs 9.0%), wholesale/retail trade (2.93% vs 3.26%), transport (3.36% vs 4.21%), accommodation (1.30% vs 4.03%), and communication (2.27% vs 2.71%). Agriculture was subdued (0.02% vs 12.26%), with government administration plunging (-18.93% vs 0.56%). In contrast, activity strengthened for mining (4.11% vs 1.57%), manufacturing (5.44% vs 0.88%), construction (5.02% vs 2.12%), and real estate (2.14% vs 4.13%).

Portugal’s economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2026, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.9% growth in the previous quarter, according to preliminary data. The deceleration reflected a negative contribution from net external demand, as exports of goods and services fell more sharply than imports. Domestic demand remained supportive, although private consumption growth eased, while investment rebounded following a decline in the previous quarter. On an annual basis, the economy grew by 2.4%, down from an upwardly revised 2.6% in the second quarter.

Italy’s economy stagnated in Q3 2026, with GDP unchanged from the previous quarter, falling short of market expectations for 0.1% growth, according to preliminary data. Year on year, GDP increased by 0.8%, also below the 0.9% forecast. Despite the weak quarterly performance, acquired growth stood at 0.8% at the end of September, meaning that Italy’s economy would expand by the same rate for the full year even if output remains flat in Q4. The figures highlight the challenge facing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government as it seeks to strengthen economic growth. Earlier this month, the government revised its GDP forecasts upwards, targeting expansion of 1% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, compared with previous estimates of 0.6% for both years. Italy’s economy grew by 0.6% in 2025, while the government expects growth to accelerate to 0.9% in 2028.

The German economy expanded by 0.2% qoq in Q3 2026, slowing from growth of 0.3% in Q2 but exceeding expectations of a 0.1% increase, according to preliminary estimates. Household and government consumption edged up, while capital formation declined. Also, low water levels on the Rhine weighed on industrial activity, while persistently high energy prices continued to constrain the sector. Meanwhile, the strong export momentum seen in the first half of the year lost considerable steam in Q3. On a year-on-year basis however, GDP grew by 1.2%, marking the strongest annual growth rate in four years. This compares with growth of 1% in Q2 and exceeds forecasts of 1.1%. The German government has raised its forecast for economic growth to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, from 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. “Fiscal stimulus from the special funds and defence spending is expected to have a noticeable impact on public investment and government consumption by 2028", the government said.

The Dutch economy grew by 0.6% in the third quarter of 2026, following an upwardly revised expansion of 0.7% in Q2 and exceeding market expectations of 0.3%. Growth was primarily supported by a stronger trade balance and the restocking of natural gas reserves. Exports rose by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, driven particularly by machinery and transport equipment, while imports increased at a slower pace. Government and household consumption both advanced by 0.4%, reflecting higher public spending on healthcare and civil servants’ salaries, as well as increased household expenditure on food and clothing. Investment, however, declined by 0.1%, mainly due to fewer aircraft imports. On the production side, mining and quarrying recorded the strongest growth in value added, at 6.9%, while manufacturing expanded by 2.7% and made the largest contribution to overall GDP growth, reflecting its economic importance and strong performance in machinery. Year-on-year, GDP increased by 2.1%.

Spain's economy grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2026, in line with expectations but easing from 0.7% in the previous quarter, according to preliminary estimates. The figures highlighted continued economic resilience despite rising inflationary pressures. Household consumption increased by 0.6%, while public spending rose 0.9%. Fixed investment remained subdued, growing just 0.1%. Net trade also supported growth, as exports rose 1.3%, outpacing the 1.1% increase in imports. On the supply side, industrial output and services both expanded by 0.7%, while construction activity was broadly unchanged. Year-on-year, GDP grew by 2.7%, also matching expectations. Earlier this month, Spain's central bank maintained its positive outlook, forecasting growth of 2.6% in 2026, matching the pace recorded in 2025, before slowing to 2.2% in 2027. Strong private consumption and exports are expected to underpin activity despite risks from inflation, geopolitical tensions and rising bond yields.

The Czech Republic’s gross domestic product expanded by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2026, accelerating from a 0.3% increase in the previous quarter but slightly missing market expectations of 0.6%, according to preliminary estimates. Growth was supported by higher household final consumption expenditure and a positive contribution from the foreign trade balance, while gross capital formation weighed on overall performance. Industry was the main driver of quarter-on-quarter growth in gross value added, alongside gains in trade, transport, accommodation, food services, and information and communication. On an annual basis, the economy grew by 1.6% in Q3, easing from 1.8% in Q2, as stronger household final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, and foreign demand supported growth, while changes in inventories weighed on overall performance.

Austria's economy grew 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2026, recovering from a 0.1% contraction in Q2, according to preliminary estimates from WIFO. The recovery was supported by slightly positive contributions from investment and foreign trade. Private consumption stagnated after falling 0.1% in Q2, while government spending declined 0.2%, matching the previous quarter's contraction. Gross fixed capital formation increased 0.2%, easing from 0.6% growth in Q2. Net trade contributed positively, as exports rose 0.3% (vs. 1.5% in Q2), while imports fell 0.2% (vs. a 0.5% increase). On the production side, industrial activity remained subdued, with value added nearly stagnating, while construction contracted 0.2%. Trade, transport, accommodation and food services expanded 0.2%, while information, communication, financial, insurance and real estate services grew 0.9%. On an annual basis, GDP expanded 0.6%, easing from an upwardly revised 0.8% in Q2.

Lithuania’s economy shrank by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2026, reversing a downwardly revised 1.4% expansion in the previous three-month period, according to preliminary estimates. This marked the first quarterly contraction since the fourth quarter of 2022, driven largely by weaker performances in construction, information and communications, as well as transportation and storage services. On a year-on-year basis, Lithuania’s GDP advanced by 1.8% in Q3 2026, slowing from 4.1% growth in the previous quarter and marking the weakest expansion since the decline in Q1 2023.

France's economy contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2026, following stagnation in the previous quarter and missing expectations for 0.1% growth, according to preliminary estimates. The decline was mainly driven by a 1.7% drop in exports, reversing a 2.8% increase in Q2, as transport equipment shipments plunged 9.1%, particularly in the aerospace sector. Fixed investment also fell by 0.6%, extending the previous quarter's 0.5% decline, amid weakness in construction and transport equipment. Economic activity was overshadowed by a wave of protests against government policies in September, which heightened market uncertainty and pushed French OAT bond yields to over two-decade highs. Meanwhile, household consumption offered some support, rising by 0.4% after 0.2% in Q2, driven partly by stronger electric vehicle purchases. Changes in inventories added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth. Year-on-year, the economy also shrank by 0.1%, marking the first contraction since Q4 2020.

Finland’s economy expanded by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2026, edging up from 0.4% growth in the previous quarter, according to preliminary estimates. This marked the fourth consecutive period of economic expansion, following a period of stagnation in the third quarter of 2025. On a yearly basis, Finland’s GDP ticked up to 1.8% from 1.6% in the second quarter, marking the strongest annual growth since the fourth quarter of 2024.

South Africa’s economy shrank by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, following a 0.5% growth in the previous quarter, according to rebased data, compared with a previously reported contraction of 0.2% in Q2 and growth of 4.0% in the preceding period. The statistics agency announced a GDP rebasing using 2022 production patterns, adjusting sectoral weights to better reflect the structure of the economy. This rebasing revealed that South Africa’s economy is 4.9%, or ZAR 300 billion, larger than previously estimated, primarily due to the inclusion of growing activities such as online gambling, illegal mining, household solar, e-hailing, and online prostitution.

Ireland’s seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 5.5% in the third quarter of 2026, slowing from a 10.2% surge in the previous quarter, according to preliminary estimates. Growth was driven primarily by gains in the multinational dominated sectors of industry, and information and communication. On a year-over-year basis, Ireland’s GDP increased by 3.9% in Q3, rebounding from a 0.4% contraction in the previous quarter.

Belgium’s economy expanded by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2026, accelerating from a flat reading in the prior quarter and edging above market expectations of a 0.2% expansion, according to preliminary estimates. This marked the strongest quarterly expansion since the first quarter of 2025, supported by growth in the services sector (+0.4%) and construction sector (+0.2%). However, industrial activity contracted by 0.1%. On an annual basis, economic growth accelerated to 0.7%, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter.