Wheat Falls on Monday, Up 16% in August

Wheat decreased 15.28% to 649.8 USd/Bu

Wheat fell around 3% to $7.43 per bushel on Monday, retreating from a three-year high of $7.67 reached in the previous session as profit-taking emerged. Despite the decline, wheat remains up more than 16% in August, marking its strongest monthly performance since February 2022. The recent rally has been driven by growing concerns over disruptions to Black Sea supplies, with Russia and Ukraine facing continued attacks on ports and shipping infrastructure. Both countries are major exporters, together accounting for more than a quarter of global wheat shipments. Russian exporters have increasingly redirected cargoes toward Baltic ports, while some buyers are turning to alternative suppliers such as Romania, France and Poland. The outlook remains uncertain as tensions escalate and prospects for a near-term peace agreement weaken. Meanwhile, Ukraine expects farmers to reduce winter-wheat plantings for the 2027 crop.

Wheat climbed toward $7.70 per bushel in late August, hitting its highest level since February 2023, as the escalating Russia-Ukraine war fueled concerns over further disruptions to supplies from one of the world’s key grain-producing regions. Russia is set to ramp up attacks on Ukraine, including infrastructure strikes, after concluding that peace talks have reached an impasse. Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, raising fears of renewed food-price pressures amid elevated energy and transport costs stemming from Middle East conflict. Ukraine’s agricultural exports are already expected to fall by more than half this season from previous estimates, while Russian wheat exports are projected to drop over 50% in August from a year ago. Adding to upward pressure on prices, US wheat export inspections fell to 425,668 metric tons in the week ended August 20, from 514,363 tons a week earlier and well below the 1.05 million tons recorded a year ago.