Soybeans Fall to 7-Week Low

Soybean futures fell to around $12.7 per bushel, hitting their lowest level in seven weeks as active US harvesting boosted supply prospects, despite renewed Chinese buying. Mostly dry weather across the Midwest over the past week allowed farmers to accelerate harvesting after earlier rain delays, with 46% of the US crop harvested as of Sunday, above the average estimate for 44% complete. Although midweek rains slowed fieldwork this week, drier conditions are forecast in the coming days. Meanwhile, Chinese government buyers booked 8 to 10 cargoes of US soybeans for shipment from December onward, and the USDA confirmed private sales of 470,000 tonnes to China in a daily export sales announcement on Wednesday. Traders are now awaiting September US crush data from NOPA, with analysts expecting processing to fall to a one-year low of 203.737 million bushels. End-of-month soyoil stocks are also projected at 1.116 billion pounds, the lowest since November 2024.

Soybean prices fell to $12.8, hovering near their lowest level since late August, as ample US supplies and uncertainty over Chinese demand weighed on prices. In its latest report released Friday, the US Department of Agriculture forecast soybean production to rise 7% year-on-year to 4.562 billion bushels in the 2026–27 marketing year, exceeding market expectations of 4.534 billion bushels. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious as top importer China has yet to make significant purchases following a weeklong national holiday. Beijing has reportedly made progress towards its pledge to purchase at least 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually through 2028, under a trade truce agreed with Washington last year. However, large purchases have yet to materialize since China’s national holiday ended last Wednesday, according to traders familiar with the matter. With supply remaining abundant, Chinese demand is likely to be a key factor in determining the near-term direction of soybean prices.

Soybean futures fell below $12.8 per bushel, hitting a six-week low as expectations for a record-large US crop and active harvesting weighed on prices. The USDA raised its 2026 soybean production forecast to 4.562 billion bushels from 4.535 billion in September, above expectations of 4.534 billion, while lifting its average yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre from 52.8. Mostly dry weather across the Midwest is allowing farmers to accelerate harvesting, with the USDA’s weekly crop progress report due Tuesday. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean planting is advancing at a record pace, with favorable rainfall supporting fieldwork. Traders are now monitoring potential Chinese demand following recent talks between Trump and Xi Jinping, although punitive Chinese tariffs continue to discourage private buyers. China also lowered its 2026/27 soybean production forecast to 20.36 million tonnes but kept its import outlook at 95.5 million tonnes, well below the USDA’s 115 million-tonne estimate.