US Natural Gas Retreats From Three-Year High

US natural gas futures rose to $2.86 per MMBtu, rebounding from a more than six-month low, tracking broader gains across energy markets as hopes for a swift resolution to the Middle East war faded. President Donald Trump said the US is “nearing completion” on achieving strategic objectives in Iran but provided little clarity on the pathway to end hostilities. He also warned of severe military action against Iran over the next two to three weeks. However, price gains were tempered by the onset of the spring shoulder season, when heating demand typically declines and storage levels increase. Weather forecasts point to above-average temperatures across the eastern US into early April and again around mid-April, reducing gas consumption. Markets now expect a faster rise in inventories, widening from a small surplus in mid-March to a larger surplus by mid-April.

US natural gas futures fell to $2.86 per MMBtu, hitting their lowest level in over a month, as the market enters the spring shoulder season, which typically reduces heating demand and allows storage levels to build. Weather forecasts showed above-average temperatures across the eastern half of the US, from late March into early April and again around mid-month, potentially reducing gas consumption. As a result, markets anticipate that inventories will rise more rapidly in the coming weeks, expanding from a small surplus in mid-March to a larger surplus by mid-April. Natgas prices gained 0.9% in March, supported by LNG feedgas demand following supply disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile US gasoline prices have crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022, climbing more than $1 per gallon since the Midde East war began.

US natural gas futures rose to $2.95 per MMBtu on Tuesday, rebounding after a 4.6% drop in the previous session and marking a roughly 3% gain for March, supported by LNG feedgas demand linked to disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. Looking ahead, warmer than expected weather forecasts across the eastern US are likely to weigh on demand, with above average temperatures projected from late March into early April and again mid month, reducing heating needs and supporting expectations of rising stockpiles. Although the EIA reported a larger than usual storage draw last week, it is seen as the final withdrawal of the winter season, with inventories expected to shift from a slight surplus in mid March to a larger surplus by mid April. Meanwhile US gasoline prices climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022, reflecting the impact of the escalating Middle East conflict, with prices rising more than $1 since the war began.