Lumber Eases from Recent Highs

Lumber futures fell to around $535 per thousand board feet, remaining near their lowest level in nine months, as rising borrowing costs weigh on housing demand. Growing concerns over inflationary pressures have fueled a broader selloff in global government debt markets, pushing yields to their highest level in nearly two decades. As a result, mortgage rates climbed above 7%, a level last seen in January 2025, further weighing on prospective homebuyers. Although lacking any particular economic significance, economists refer to the threshold as a psychological ceiling. Meanwhile, lumber-intensive single-family housing starts increased 7.6% in August. Providing an offsetting pressure, Ottawa had announced counter-tariffs of 25% on US lumber and 50% on plywood following US tariffs on several lumber-related goods. US forestry groups have long accused Canada of distorting the market, as Canadian forestland is largely publicly owned, allowing its lumber to be sold at lower prices.

Lumber futures fell to around $535 per thousand board feet, reaching their lowest level in nine months, as elevated borrowing costs continued to weigh on demand. The US housing market remains tight, with mortgage rates near their highest level in over a year and showing no sign of easing after the Federal Reserve hiked its key policy rate, weighing on demand from prospective homebuyers. Building permits also fell 2.7% over the month, although lumber-intensive single-family housing starts increased 7.6% in August. Providing an offsetting pressure, US-Canada trade talks fell through, raising concerns over lumber supply. Ottawa had announced counter-tariffs of 25% on US lumber and 50% on plywood following US tariffs on several lumber-related goods. US forestry groups have long accused Canada of distorting the market, noting that 94% of Canadian forestland is publicly owned, compared with 58% privately owned in the US, allowing Canadian lumber to be sold at lower prices.

Lumber decreased to 553.00 USD/1000 board feet, the lowest since April 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber lost 2.51%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 1.48%.