Gasoline Gains for Third Session

US gasoline futures rose above $3 per gallon on Monday, gaining for a third consecutive session, as uncertainty persisted over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said an agreement with Oman on new shipping routes was close to being finalized but warned that reopening the waterway remained conditional on Washington meeting additional demands. Tehran also ruled out direct talks with the US for now, saying it would not engage while Washington continues to violate an interim agreement reached in June, despite US assertions that a deal is close. Oil supply risks were further underscored by claims from Iran-aligned Houthis that they had struck Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery. Elsewhere, escalating attacks between Russia and Ukraine have increased the threat of further strikes on energy facilities, following Ukraine’s recent long-range drone attack on a major Russian refinery. Moscow has since extended its ban on gasoline and diesel exports through January 2027.

US gasoline futures rose above $2.90 per gallon on Friday, extending their rebound from a nearly five-week low as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz cast fresh doubt on efforts to fully reopen the vital shipping route. Iranian state media also reported that lawmakers are considering suspending transit rights under the Oman-brokered shipping agreement for vessels linked to the US, Israel, and other countries deemed hostile by Tehran. Adding to supply concerns, Ukraine carried out drone strikes on two Russian oil refineries, including one of the country's largest in the Yaroslavl region, following a brief lull in late July that had allowed a partial recovery in fuel supplies. Russia's gasoline and diesel exports plunged 60% in July, prompting Moscow to extend its gasoline export ban through January 2027. Meanwhile, EIA data showed gasoline inventories fell by 1.64 million barrels in the week ended July 31, leaving stockpiles 7% below the five-year seasonal average.

US gasoline futures rose above $2.85 per gallon after reaching a near five-week low, as traders weighed signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran against renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining infrastructure. Ukraine struck two Russian oil refineries overnight at the Yaroslavl region, one of the country's largest, following a brief lull during late July that had allowed repairs and supply recovery. Russia's gasoline and diesel exports plunged 60% in July, prompting Moscow to extend its gasoline export ban through January 2027. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US gasoline inventories fell by 1.64 million barrels in the week ended July 31, exceeding expectations and leaving stocks 7% below the five-year seasonal average. Elsewhere, Iran and Oman reached an agreement on a temporary shipping route, though officials stressed it would not amount to a full reopening of the strategic waterway, while US officials continued to express confidence that a deal with Iran was nearing.