Crude Oil Slips as Supply Outlook Improves

Crude oil fell to around $90 per barrel on Monday, extending losses as signs of increasing global supply outweighed concerns over persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East. On Friday, G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves while pledging not to impose restrictions on energy exports. Major OPEC+ members also agreed over the weekend to keep production quotas unchanged next month amid prolonged supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, data showed Persian Gulf crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days during the final week of September, despite disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. In Yemen, Saudi-backed forces launched a full-scale military operation to retake areas controlled by the Houthis following weeks of escalating tensions between the Iran-backed group and Saudi Arabia.

Crude oil fell toward $90 per barrel on Monday as investors continued to monitor rising tensions in the Middle East, while OPEC+ agreed to maintain oil production quotas unchanged next month. Saudi-backed forces in Yemen launched a full-scale military operation to retake areas controlled by the Houthis following weeks of escalating tensions between the Iran-backed group and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that Saudi Arabia had been using to export oil while avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, major OPEC+ members agreed over the weekend to leave production quotas unchanged next month amid prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict. The decision comes as oil prices climb back toward the $100-a-barrel level and diesel prices reach record highs at the pump, prompting G7 nations to release emergency oil reserves amid the continuing conflict.

Crude oil trimmed losses to trade near $92 a barrel on Friday after reaching a one-month low of $88.06 earlier in the session, as G7 nations announced plans to release crude and diesel reserves to ease surging fuel prices. The G7 will deploy 100 million barrels of reserves over the next four months. G7 leaders also agreed to “refrain from export restrictions on energy and energy products between G7 countries” and called on producers to avoid measures that could exacerbate market tensions, according to their joint statement. Meanwhile, crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf are at or near prewar levels, although volumes remain volatile. On the other hand, the US is reportedly sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, raising concerns over a potential escalation in the months-long conflict and renewed supply risks.