Brent Crude Approaches $84

Brent crude fell toward $103 per barrel on Friday, trimming gains from the previous session after President Donald Trump said on social media that the US was engaged in “productive discussions” with Iran and would refrain from attacking the country before the midterm elections. Trump also claimed that record volumes of crude were passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while stressing that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain fully in place. However, later reports indicated that the US had prepared plans for three days of strikes against Iran, targeting drone and missile stockpiles, energy infrastructure and other sites. On Thursday, Brent prices surged by as much as 5.7% as Tehran intensified attacks on tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, with nine vessels reportedly targeted over the past week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias threatened offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, prompting producers to shut in around 1.3 million barrels per day of crude output.

Brent crude rose above $103 a barrel in a volatile session on Thursday as Iran ramped up attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and Hurricane Isaias threatened US offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. Nine tankers have come under attack in and around Hormuz over the past week, jeopardizing the recent recovery in crude oil flows through the strait. About 9.5 million bpd exited Hormuz in the week ended Tuesday, around 30% below normal levels before the Iran war. In the Gulf of Mexico, oil companies have shut in about 500,000 bpd, or 25% of offshore production, as Hurricane Isaias moves toward the Alabama, Mississippi and Florida Panhandle coasts. Prices had earlier retreated from session highs after US President Donald Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections. Earlier reports indicated that Trump and his national security team were considering renewed strikes in the coming weeks.

Brent crude oil eased to $103 per barrel on Thursday from $106 earlier in the session, as US President Trump downplayed the prospect of an imminent strike on Iran that would re-escalate the conflict in the Middle East. The US president signaled that discussions with Tehran were productive and that the US would not strike Iran before the midterm elections early next month. Still, crude held firmly above the one-month low touched yesterday, as attacks on laden tankers in the Persian Gulf halted the nascent recovery in exports from GCC members. On top of that, supply disruptions emerged in the Gulf of Mexico, where Chevron and Shell began curbing production and evacuating offshore personnel as Tropical Storm Isaias approached. As of Wednesday, roughly 25.1% of US Gulf oil production and 16.4% of natural gas output had been shut in. Earlier data from the EIA showed that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell further, approaching multi-decade lows.