Argentina Economic Activity Beats Forecasts in September

Argentina’s economic activity declined 0.3% year-on-year in November 2025, down from a 3.2% increase in October and marking the first contraction since September 2024. The slowdown reflected weaker performance across several sectors, including manufacturing (-8.2% vs -2.7%), construction (-2.3% vs 5.3%), trade (-6.4% vs 0.6%), real estate and business services (0.4% vs 3.8%) and education (0.7% vs 0.9%). By contrast, agriculture strengthened (10.5% vs 3.1%), hotels and restaurants moved into modest positive territory (0.3% vs -0.4%), transport and communications moderated (1.8% vs 2.5%) and financial intermediation remained a positive contributor albeit smaller (13.9% vs 23.1%). Utilities posted a smaller gain (1.6% vs 2.1%) and the public sector’s small contraction persisted (-0.6% vs -0.8%). Mining stayed in expansion but slowed (7.0% vs 8.1%). On a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis, activity fell (-0.3%), while the trend-cycle was unchanged (0.0%).

Argentina’s economic activity expanded 3.2% year-on-year in October 2025, slowing from 4.8% in September and coming just below expectations of 3.3%. Twelve sectors posted gains, led by fishing (91.4%) and financial intermediation (22.8%), supported by stronger activity among brokers and securities firms. In contrast, manufacturing fell 2.7%, alongside declines in public administration and defense including social security (0.8%) and hotels and restaurants (1.0%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, activity contracted 0.4% month-on-month.

Argentina’s economic activity grew 5% year-on-year in September 2025, accelerating from the 2.5% rise in the prior month and well above market expectations of 2.1%. Thirteen of fifteen sectors expanded. The largest contributions came from financial intermediation (39.7% vs 26.4%) and real estate, business, and rental activities (5% vs 2.5%). Fishing also showed a sharp jump (58.2% vs 1.1%). Only two sectors declined: manufacturing (-1.0% vs -4.8%) and public administration and defense, including compulsory social security (-0.7% vs -0.5%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, activity rose 0.5%.