Argentine Peso Back On the Defensive

2025-10-20 16:07 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

The Argentine peso weakened past 1,450 per US dollar and slid back toward its record low of 1,475 from September 19th after a brief recovery as political and policy uncertainty ahead of the October 26th midterms collided with doubts over the size and immediacy of US support, triggering heavy FX outflows, a repricing of devaluation risk and a rush into forward protection.

Markets initially cheered talk of a $20 billion swap framework but the deal’s opaque timing and activation conditions, mixed public comments from Washington and a high-profile warning that US help could be contingent on the election outcome undermined that confidence.

Even after limited Treasury peso purchases, the official exchange rate and short-dated forwards moved sharply lower, reflecting banks’ and corporates’ hedging and funding stress.

Against a fragile reserve position and large near-term external obligations, traders have instead priced a higher chance of a post-election policy shift.



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Argentine Peso Back On the Defensive
The Argentine peso weakened past 1,450 per US dollar and slid back toward its record low of 1,475 from September 19th after a brief recovery as political and policy uncertainty ahead of the October 26th midterms collided with doubts over the size and immediacy of US support, triggering heavy FX outflows, a repricing of devaluation risk and a rush into forward protection. Markets initially cheered talk of a $20 billion swap framework but the deal’s opaque timing and activation conditions, mixed public comments from Washington and a high-profile warning that US help could be contingent on the election outcome undermined that confidence. Even after limited Treasury peso purchases, the official exchange rate and short-dated forwards moved sharply lower, reflecting banks’ and corporates’ hedging and funding stress. Against a fragile reserve position and large near-term external obligations, traders have instead priced a higher chance of a post-election policy shift.
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