IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Outlook

2026-04-14 13:43 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

The IMF has revised its 2026 global growth forecast downward to 3.1%, a 0.2 percentage-point cut from previous expectations, while maintaining the 2027 outlook at 3.2%, reflecting the economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Although the baseline scenario assumes a contained conflict, the IMF warns that prolonged hostilities could further weaken the global economy and destabilize financial markets.

It also noted that energy supply shock from the Iran conflict is comparable in severity to the 1974 oil crisis, though the global economy is now more resilient.

By region, the US economy is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027.

China’s growth is forecast to slow to 4.4% and 4.0%, respectively.

The Euro Area is projected to expand by just 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, while the UK and Japan face similarly modest growth of 0.8% and 0.7% in 2026, compared to 1.3% and 0.6% in 2027.

Global inflation is expected to rise modestly in 2026 before declining again in 2027.



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IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Outlook
The IMF has revised its 2026 global growth forecast downward to 3.1%, a 0.2 percentage-point cut from previous expectations, while maintaining the 2027 outlook at 3.2%, reflecting the economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Although the baseline scenario assumes a contained conflict, the IMF warns that prolonged hostilities could further weaken the global economy and destabilize financial markets. It also noted that energy supply shock from the Iran conflict is comparable in severity to the 1974 oil crisis, though the global economy is now more resilient. By region, the US economy is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. China’s growth is forecast to slow to 4.4% and 4.0%, respectively. The Euro Area is projected to expand by just 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, while the UK and Japan face similarly modest growth of 0.8% and 0.7% in 2026, compared to 1.3% and 0.6% in 2027. Global inflation is expected to rise modestly in 2026 before declining again in 2027.
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