IMF Lifts GDP Growth Outlook, Warns of Lingering Risks

2025-07-29 14:05 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

The IMF projected global economic growth at 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, slightly higher than previous forecasts from April 2025.

The upward revision—by 0.2 pp for 2025 and 0.1 for 2026—reflects stronger-than-expected early economic activity in anticipation of higher tariffs, lower-than-expected US tariff rates, improved financial conditions due in part to a weaker USD, and fiscal expansion in several major economies.

Despite the slightly improved outlook, the IMF warns that risks remain tilted to the downside.

A rebound in tariffs or failure to reach lasting trade agreements could dampen growth.

Growth forecasts for key economies include the US at 1.9% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, the Eurozone at 1.0% and 1.2%, and the UK at 1.2% and 1.4%.

China’s growth was revised up to 4.8% and 4.2%, while Japan is expected to grow more modestly at 0.7% and 0.5%.

Meanwhile, global inflation is expected to ease to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, although it is likely to remain above target in the US.



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