Ukraine - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.70 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 9.00 8.9 8.9 6.5 6.3 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 18.00 18 18 17.5 17 16 percent
Balance of Trade -1331.30 -570 -1130 -480 -400 -830 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 82.9 82.9 84.4 84.4 86.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 28.03
 28.23 28.36 28.5 28.63 29.17
Stock Market 539.19
points		 516 504 493 481 438
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent		 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.80
percent		 3.5 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.2
GDP 112.15
USD Billion		 113 113 115 115 116
GDP Constant Prices 244789.00
UAH Million		 294257 284556 224226 250909 298087
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 47596.00
UAH Million		 48938 70444 37250 48786 73794
GDP per capita 2991.63
USD		 3100 3100 3300 3300 3500
GDP per capita PPP 7894.39
USD		 7900 7900 8000 8000 8100
GDP From Agriculture 12591.00
UAH Million		 55131 34735 7541 12906 36387
GDP From Construction 7308.00
UAH Million		 7283 9186 3950 7491 9623
GDP From Manufacturing 28619.00
UAH Million		 26521 31748 26148 29334 33257
GDP From Mining 11441.00
UAH Million		 11910 12418 11459 11727 13009
GDP From Public Administration 13292.00
UAH Million		 13299 13382 13482 13624 14019
GDP From Services 37291.00
UAH Million		 33121 35306 32608 38223 36984
GDP From Transport 21757.00
UAH Million		 22029 22480 19232 22301 23549
GDP From Utilities 774.00
UAH Million		 797 757 670 793 793
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.70
percent		 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.2
Unemployed Persons 298.00
Thousand 		306 365 326 319 370
Wages 9170.00
UAH/Month		 7800 9000 8000 9390 10000
Wage Growth 24.95
percent		 24.69 13 23.89 23.76 6
Population 42.41
Million		 40.56 42.02 41.93 41.85 38.37
Retirement Age Women 58.50
 58.5 58.5 59 59 59.5
Retirement Age Men 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.90
percent		 62.66 62.6 62.15 62.61 63.5
Living Wage Family 6440.00
UAH/Month		 7000 7000 8000 6012 8000
Living Wage Individual 4840.00
UAH/Month		 4510 4562 4526 4490 4301
Employed Persons 16034.90
Thousand		 16187 15963 16439 16495 17084
Employment Rate 64.70
percent		 65.72 65.06 65.13 65.68 65.4
Minimum Wages 3723.00
UAH/Month		 3723 3723 4400 3266 5100
Wages High Skilled 5170.00
UAH/Month		 5250 5250 5250 4398 5300
Wages Low Skilled 3230.00
UAH/Month		 3592 3592 3400 2743 3700
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 9.00
percent		 8.9 8.9 6.5 6.3 5.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.00
Index Points		 111 110 108 106 122
Core Consumer Prices 108.70
Index Points		 114 115 118 118 124
Core Inflation Rate 8.70
percent		 6 5.4 8.14 8.09 3.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent		 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2
Food Inflation 7.10
percent		 13.2 10.5 9 9 6.9
CPI Transportation 100.70
Index Points		 111 111 105 107 123
Export Prices 115.30
Index Points		 116 115 115 115 115
Producer Prices 358.20
Index Points		 369 395 423 433 572
Producer Prices Change 18.10
percent		 21 22.5 24 24.5 18
Import Prices 115.50
Index Points		 116 115 116 115 116
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 17.5 17 16
Interbank Rate 18.09
percent		 18.1 18.1 17.6 17.1 16.1
Money Supply M0 344169.00
UAH Million		 349752 355281 360619 365925 417195
Money Supply M1 639410.00
UAH Million		 638695 638565 638572 638572 638572
Money Supply M2 1226931.00
UAH Million		 1233304 1254185 1273916 1293390 1479791
Money Supply M3 1233229.00
UAH Million		 1225885 1244497 1263165 1281659 1457696
Foreign Exchange Reserves 17232.00
USD Million		 18900 17030 17043 17048 17048
Banks Balance Sheet 1896431.00
UAH Million		 1889313 1849906 1889670 1889666 2127762
Loans to Private Sector 765186.44
UAH Million		 769246 777311 785185 793076 869219
Deposit Interest Rate 9.13
percent		 9.13 9.13 8.63 8.13 7.13
Central Bank Balance Sheet 996793.00
UAH Million		 998592 999133 999132 999130 999131
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1331.30
USD Million		 -570 -1130 -480 -400 -830
Exports 3618.70
USD Million		 4050 3980 4320 3850 4670
Imports 4950.00
USD Million		 4620 5110 4800 4250 5500
Current Account -1715.00
USD Million		 -700 -790 -776 -777 -777
Current Account to GDP -1.90
percent		 -2.3 -2.3 -2 -2 -1.7
External Debt 116290.00
USD Million		 117407 117255 117312 117533 118276
Capital Flows -327.00
USD Million		 -1474 -1111 -853 -1144 -1091
Gold Reserves 24.30
Tonnes		 24.39 24.63 24.84 25.02 25.27
Foreign Direct Investment 298.00
USD Million		 563 542 556 571 579
Crude Oil Production 32.00
BBL/D/1K		 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9
Remittances 2584.00
USD Million		 2655 2669 2590 2646 2662
Terms Of Trade 99.90
Index Points		 99.57 99.9 99.53 99.78 99.73
Terrorism Index 6.56
 6.25 5.92 5.65 5.39 2.57
Weapons Sales 240.00
USD Million		 451 436 433 431 499
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.00
percent		 82.9 82.9 84.4 84.4 86.1
Government Budget -1.40
percent of GDP		 -2.4 -2.4 -2.6 -2.6 -2
Government Budget Value 13356.16
UAH Million		 26875 20069 16572 21460 20021
Government Spending 55563.00
UAH Million		 51378 71500 53888 56952 74900
Government Revenues 652069.66
UAH Million		 544168 447643 493645 499141 490693
Government Debt 746690274.74
UAH Thousand		 758588170 775868741 792894075 809653411 963494594
Fiscal Expenditure 643825.90
UAH Million		 517293 426915 477073 477681 470673
Military Expenditure 3354.20
USD Million		 3170 3064 2989 2913 2618
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 2.90
percent		 2.2 2.3 1.8 2.1 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 1.40
percent		 2.7 1.5 6.5 0.8 1
Manufacturing Production 2.30
percent		 2.05 2.16 2.15 2.15 2.15
Changes in Inventories -5383.00
UAH Million		 34400 15100 8898 8904 16500
Internet Speed 12799.43
KBps		 14586 14828 15075 15316 17381
IP Addresses 5156332.00
IP		 5297454 5360883 5371868 5378505 5569160
Corruption Index 30.00
Points		 29 29 29 29 30
Corruption Rank 130.00
 130 129 128 127 124
Ease of Doing Business 76.00
 70 70 69 67 62
Electricity Production 13942.50
Gigawatt-hour		 12924 13744 13521 13047 13333
Competitiveness Index 4.11
Points		 4.02 4.02 4.04 4.05 4.04
Competitiveness Rank 81.00
 82 82 81 80 80
Business Confidence 118.30
Index Points		 115 114 113 112 111
Cement Production 739.00
Thousands of Tonnes 		818 827 834 838 847
Mining Production 4.50
percent		 4.4 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99
Steel Production 1815.00
Thousand Tonnes		 1804 1781 1777 1778 1779
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 61.80
Index Points		 60.05 60.52 60.63 60.58 60.58
Retail Sales Mom 3.90
percent		 1.1 1 1.3 1.2 0.9
Retail Sales Yoy 6.60
percent		 6.7 5 6.2 6.4 6.4
Consumer Spending 181290.00
UAH Million		 194029 224920 179353 185822 235615
Bank Lending Rate 16.56
percent		 16.56 16.56 16.06 15.56 14.56
Gasoline Prices 1.03
USD/Liter		 1.05 0.99 0.94 0.88 0.7
Consumer Credit 140510.10
UAH Million		 143708 147646 150814 153256 160851
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 19 19 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 17
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 22.00
percent		 22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00
percent		 22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 1.52
celsius		 18.01 2.31 -3.15 13.38 7.86
Precipitation 24.89
mm		 56.02 41.25 34.25 46.95 47.24