Ukraine - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.90 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.1 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 13.10 11.9 9.5 9 8 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 17.00 17 17 16.5 16.5 14 percent
Balance of Trade -460.10 -460 -570 -1130 -480 -830 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 82.9 82.9 82.9 84.4 86.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 26.08
 26.63 26.97 27.31 27.65 29.07
Stock Market 472.76
points		 353 348 342 337 317
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent		 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10
percent		 2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.2
GDP 93.27
USD Billion		 95.25 98.42 108 115 119
GDP Constant Prices 274403.00
UAH Million		 236730 290245 280440 214925 293775
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 67931.00
UAH Million		 42172 48881 69425 31369 72727
GDP per capita 2905.86
USD		 2760 2760 2760 2870 2960
GDP per capita PPP 7668.06
USD		 7420 7558 7524 7604 7853
GDP From Agriculture 33496.00
UAH Million		 10642 54363 34233 7544 35861
GDP From Construction 8858.00
UAH Million		 6847 7120 9053 3759 9483
GDP From Manufacturing 30615.00
UAH Million		 28012 26268 31289 25164 32776
GDP From Mining 11975.00
UAH Million		 11409 11767 12238 11059 12820
GDP From Public Administration 12905.00
UAH Million		 13327 13103 13189 14159 13816
GDP From Services 34046.00
UAH Million		 36129 33064 34795 30588 36450
GDP From Transport 21678.00
UAH Million		 21262 22024 22155 19077 23208
GDP From Utilities 730.00
UAH Million		 925 968 746 850 782
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.90
percent		 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.1 8.2
Unemployed Persons 326.80
Thousand 		307 319 365 337 370
Wages 8382.00
UAH/Month		 7600 7800 9000 8000 10000
Wage Growth 24.14
percent		 23.42 22.09 13 20.91 6
Population 42.41
Million		 40.56 40.56 42.02 41.93 38.37
Retirement Age Women 58.50
 58.5 58.5 58.5 59 59.5
Retirement Age Men 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.00
percent		 62.49 62.57 62.6 62 63.5
Living Wage Family 6440.00
UAH/Month		 7000 7000 7000 8000 8000
Living Wage Individual 4840.00
UAH/Month		 4840 4840 4840 4840 4840
Employed Persons 15495.90
Thousand		 15637 15631 15963 15525 17084
Employment Rate 64.50
percent		 65.18 65.41 64.76 64.59 64.95
Minimum Wages 3723.00
UAH/Month		 3723 3723 3723 4400 5100
Wages High Skilled 5170.00
UAH/Month		 5250 5250 5250 5250 5300
Wages Low Skilled 3230.00
UAH/Month		 3592 3592 3592 3400 3700
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 13.10
percent		 11.9 9.5 9 8 5.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.80
Index Points		 114 112 110 109 124
Core Consumer Prices 109.40
Index Points		 114 114 115 118 124
Core Inflation Rate 9.40
percent		 6.4 6 5.4 7.72 3.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.80
percent		 1.04 1.05 1 1.05 0.6
Food Inflation 17.30
percent		 14.2 13.2 10.5 9 6.9
CPI Transportation 99.10
Index Points		 111 111 111 107 125
Export Prices 112.00
Index Points		 114 114 114 114 114
Producer Prices 341.50
Index Points		 330 341 358 377 417
Producer Prices Change 14.10
percent		 12.5 11.8 11.1 10.5 7.3
Import Prices 114.90
Index Points		 115 111 115 112 113
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 17.00
percent		 17 17 16.5 16.5 14
Interbank Rate 16.97
percent		 19.33 19.33 18.83 18.83 16.33
Money Supply M0 331618.00
UAH Million		 314425 311267 312369 311843 311994
Money Supply M1 589281.00
UAH Million		 550992 548612 552151 553356 552722
Money Supply M2 1168114.00
UAH Million		 1145154 1117817 1120034 1131661 1130215
Money Supply M3 1190948.00
UAH Million		 1144646 1117445 1119797 1131537 1130156
Foreign Exchange Reserves 18421.10
USD Million		 17756 17866 18259 18367 18109
Banks Balance Sheet 1861685.00
UAH Million		 1851238 1782426 1849906 1761718 2127762
Loans to Private Sector 758822.58
UAH Million		 771903 780897 789880 798839 894344
Deposit Interest Rate 9.13
percent		 11.63 11.63 11.13 11.13 8.63
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1029328.00
UAH Million		 1091656 1155070 1103604 1144067 1126740
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -460.10
USD Million		 -460 -570 -1130 -480 -830
Exports 4058.20
USD Million		 3600 4050 3980 4320 4670
Imports 4518.40
USD Million		 4060 4620 5110 4800 5500
Current Account -600.00
USD Million		 -118 -121 -121 -122 -122
Current Account to GDP -1.90
percent		 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2 -1.7
External Debt 116578.00
USD Million		 116509 116417 116478 116437 116454
Capital Flows -327.00
USD Million		 -120 -120 -120 -120 -120
Gold Reserves 24.30
Tonnes		 24.43 24.53 24.78 24.98 25.37
Foreign Direct Investment 298.00
USD Million		 667 653 663 671 675
Crude Oil Production 31.00
BBL/D/1K		 28.1 26.83 31.64 31.38 30.6
Terms Of Trade 97.50
Index Points		 99.15 102 100 102 100
Terrorism Index 6.56
 6.59 6.25 5.92 5.65 2.57
Weapons Sales 240.00
USD Million		 240 240 240 240 240
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.00
percent		 82.9 82.9 82.9 84.4 86.1
Government Budget -1.40
percent of GDP		 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.6 -2
Government Budget Value 20564.01
UAH Million		 -546342 -328374 -368680 -411742 -373853
Government Spending 68949.00
UAH Million		 49274 50024 70466 53077 73817
Government Revenues 248839.51
UAH Million		 150921 178144 188689 192768 195342
Government Debt 750779831.03
UAH Thousand		 774821854 796747978 818419163 839839073 1059682182
Fiscal Expenditure 251945.20
UAH Million		 697263 506518 548988 604511 569195
Military Expenditure 3354.20
USD Million		 3611 3592 3572 3515 2937
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production 1.00
percent		 -1.6 -0.4 1.1 -0.16 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 7.60
percent		 7.09 -3.38 0.9 1.68 0.8
Manufacturing Production -4.60
percent		 3.53 2.52 1.71 1.04 -1.62
Changes in Inventories 5978.00
UAH Million		 -1200 34400 15100 46272 16500
Internet Speed 12799.43
KBps		 14336 14586 14828 15075 17381
IP Addresses 5156332.00
IP		 5246467 5297454 5360883 5371868 5569160
Corruption Index 30.00
Points		 30 30 30 30 30
Corruption Rank 130.00
 130 130 130 130 130
Ease of Doing Business 76.00
 76 76 76 76 76
Electricity Production 13942.50
Gigawatt-hour		 11993 12648 12166 12161 12302
Competitiveness Index 4.11
Points		 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05
Competitiveness Rank 81.00
 78 78 78 79 76
Business Confidence 120.60
Index Points		 115 117 115 117 116
Cement Production 739.00
Thousands of Tonnes 		871 875 877 877 877
Mining Production 3.30
percent		 -6.38 -5.52 -5.1 -4.86 -4.28
Steel Production 1711.00
Thousand Tonnes		 1931 1908 1921 1923 1920
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 57.70
Index Points		 59.22 59.36 57.71 58.62 58.5
Retail Sales Mom 13.10
percent		 1.95 0.51 8.4 0.83 4.2
Retail Sales Yoy 7.60
percent		 10.23 8.38 4.1 8.31 3.2
Consumer Spending 212295.00
UAH Million		 167321 187041 216965 162834 227282
Bank Lending Rate 16.08
percent		 18.58 18.58 18.08 18.08 15.58
Gasoline Prices 1.07
USD/Liter		 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.56
Consumer Credit 130962.91
UAH Million		 135312 138944 141929 144167 151042
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 18
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 22.00
percent		 22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00
percent		 22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent		 -0.17 -0.17 -0.17 -0.27 1.92
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 1.52
celsius		 13.6 18.01 2.31 -3.15 7.86
Precipitation 24.89
mm		 53.41 56.02 41.25 34.25 47.24