Ukraine | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.30 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.50 9.7 9.5 9.8 10 8.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 13.50 13 10.2 8.8 6.9 3.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 12.50 12.5 12 11 10 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -151.40 -222 -224 -399 -228 -222 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 78.71 76.65 74.58 72.18 79.04 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 26.02 26.25 26.51 27.29 27.03 31.19 [+]
Stock Market 284.48 281 278 270 273 227 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.30 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 90.62 99.42 95.33 103 87.8 119 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 209888.00 240586 243954 248101 214157 263544 UAH Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 30634.00 35880 37972 50643 31355 56692 UAH Million [+]
GDP per capita 2825.85 2852 2754 2611 2629 2960 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 7456.93 7350 7330 7478 6999 7853 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7367.00 10894 52216 29680 6699 32833 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Construction 3671.00 6062 5886 7485 3913 8731 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 24574.00 27923 26891 30168 24772 34128 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Mining 10800.00 11830 12043 12123 10623 12143 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 13827.00 13264 13698 15162 13805 16907 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Services 29871.00 36453 33711 31473 29871 35675 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Transport 18630.00 20921 21552 22359 19026 24737 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 830.00 839 822 830 815 821 UAH Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.50 9.7 9.5 9.8 10 8.2 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 352.60 350 310 370 366 370 Thousand [+]
Wages 6659.00 5824 5923 6223 8061 8323 UAH/Month [+]
Wage Growth 36.04 18 16 15 41.48 6 percent [+]
Population 42.59 42.51 41.2 39.89 39.89 42.37 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58.1 58.1 58.1 57.82 57.85 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4310.00 5210 5435 5661 5886 8362 UAH/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2640.00 2941 3106 3276 2351 4017 UAH/Month [+]
Employed Persons 15226.10 15318 15284 15840 15104 17084 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 63.30 63.89 63.9 63.46 63.38 63.53 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40 62.7 62.5 62.4 61.31 63.5 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 7771.40 11800 11900 12000 7778 16000 UAH/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7547.70 7133 6910 7024 6965 6985 UAH/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 13.50 13 10.2 8.8 6.9 3.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.30 100 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 106.50 107 106 106 107 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.30 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.67 3.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 295.20 296 308 317 328 415 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 35.70 31.3 28.1 25.5 23.2 10.2 percent [+]
Import Prices 115.40 118 121 122 123 126 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 10.60 8.7 8.3 7.7 12.71 3.9 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 99.90 101 101 100 101 100 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 118.50 115 115 115 116 116 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.30 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.33 0.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 12.50 12.5 12 11 10 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 14.67 15.15 14.2 14.12 14.14 14.21 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 301225.00 303371 307836 311772 315634 355741 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M1 525427.00 528014 537977 547402 556735 655932 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1088392.00 1091878 1107189 1121218 1134980 1274977 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1088677.00 1091870 1107002 1120841 1134361 1271123 UAH Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 17617.00 18007 18237 18195 18180 18180 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1769970.00 1660363 1687515 1728884 1769322 2127762 UAH Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 711791.02 716440 721239 726217 730981 779328 UAH Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 11.50 12.74 12.05 11.37 11.35 11.8 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1131012.00 1149119 1154319 1154823 1154953 1154978 UAH Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -151.40 -222 -224 -399 -228 -222 USD Million [+]
Exports 3336.30 2900 3200 3620 3437 3900 USD Million [+]
Imports 3417.70 3100 3500 3700 3641 4200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -146.00 -344 -365 -375 -376 -376 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.60 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.3 -1.7 percent [+]
External Debt 113643.00 113025 112920 112079 111936 109891 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -564.00 -1016 -1365 -912 -990 -1057 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 25.50 25.87 26.24 26.59 26.86 27.21 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 102.70 103 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 7.13 8.01 8.56 9.12 8.94 7.19 [+]
Weapons Sales 528.00 688 771 854 828 559 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 30.00 30.01 30.01 30.01 30.01 30.01 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 228.00 770 716 720 751 759 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 78.71 76.65 74.58 72.18 79.04 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.60 -6.45 -6.43 -6.41 -5.95 -5.48 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -19434.81 -11772 -6296 -5265 -5140 -5165 UAH Million [+]
Government Spending 51833.00 51498 44748 63312 51620 64075 UAH Million [+]
Government Revenues 323918.07 443307 373228 352527 374802 369415 UAH Million [+]
Government Debt 691984207.86 711280361 738370072 765179702 791702553 1065382234 UAH Thousand [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 285161.60 438811 376410 347746 371536 366586 UAH Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3479.30 3611 3592 3572 3515 3095 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 1.20 -0.5 0.2 0.5 -1 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 3.40 -2.4 3.6 0.7 -0.06 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -2.80 -0.34 -0.48 -0.47 -0.46 -0.46 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -306.00 -358 38667 14561 1966 16516 UAH Million [+]
Mining Production -12.30 -12.77 -13.2 -13.51 -13.56 -13.59 percent [+]
Steel Production 1689.00 1666 1691 1727 1740 1725 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 27 27 27 27 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 131 132 132 132 126 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 80.00 84 84 84 85 93 [+]
Electricity Production 12313.80 11618 13920 14809 13382 13669 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.00 3.99 3.99 3.99 4.01 4.02 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 85.00 84 84 84 79 81 [+]
Business Confidence 113.30 113 111 111 110 108 [+]
Cement Production 851.00 848 845 843 841 839 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 58.00 58.6 58.33 58.15 58.2 58.2 [+]
Retail Sales Mom 5.60 1.5 -1.04 9.8 4.14 4.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 10.70 6.2 12.61 4.5 13.38 3.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 159018.00 157902 183524 203584 161858 218805 UAH Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 13.59 13.75 14 14.3 14.59 17.1 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 104374.99 104639 105346 105998 106471 107907 UAH Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00 18.52 18.37 18.22 18.1 17.35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.00 37.65 29.82 22 22 21.96 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00 35.85 28.92 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 1.8 0.9 0 0 0 percent [+]