Ukraine - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.90 10 9.6 9.4 9.4 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 14.10 13 11.9 9.5 9 5.2 percent
Interest Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 14 percent
Balance of Trade -1120.40 -800 -748 -699 -312 -222 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 82.9 82.9 82.9 82.9 86.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 27.01
28.85 29.17 29.5 29.83 31.19
Stock Market 335.79
points
330 326 321 317 285
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80
percent
2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.2
GDP 93.27
USD Billion
85.75 87.6 89.45 108 119
GDP Constant Prices 287229.00
UAH Million
222116 238951 271997 252815 263544
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 48373.00
UAH Million
39471 40241 43792 52719 56692
GDP per capita 2905.86
USD
2760 2760 2760 2760 2960
GDP per capita PPP 7668.06
USD
7188 7320 7452 7524 7853
GDP From Agriculture 53798.00
UAH Million
6634 10298 52060 30125 32833
GDP From Construction 7046.00
UAH Million
4191 6559 6962 7920 8731
GDP From Manufacturing 25995.00
UAH Million
26517 28871 26615 31073 34128
GDP From Mining 11645.00
UAH Million
12307 12396 12386 11880 12143
GDP From Public Administration 12967.00
UAH Million
13451 13300 13141 15768 16907
GDP From Services 32720.00
UAH Million
32249 34483 33564 32764 35675
GDP From Transport 21795.00
UAH Million
19846 20562 21236 22850 24737
GDP From Utilities 958.00
UAH Million
1020 1041 1055 1071 1175
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.90
percent
10 9.6 9.4 9.4 8.2
Unemployed Persons 378.90
Thousand
390 379 383 365 370
Wages 8777.00
UAH/Month
8910 8855 8804 6923 8323
Wage Growth 35.55
percent
33.67 32.08 30.72 13 6
Population 42.59
Million
40.56 40.56 40.56 40.84 38.37
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 57 57 58
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60
percent
62.26 62.39 62.4 62.6 63.5
Living Wage Family 6440.00
UAH/Month
5877 5951 6024 13800 16000
Living Wage Individual 4840.00
UAH/Month
4405 4458 4510 4562 4341
Employed Persons 15745.00
Thousand
15867 16045 16108 15963 17084
Employment Rate 65.50
percent
64.82 65.3 65.32 65.15 65.4
Wages High Skilled 5170.00
UAH/Month
4159 4284 4409 4534 4146
Wages Low Skilled 3230.00
UAH/Month
2651 2706 2760 3592 4017
Minimum Wages 3723.00
UAH/Month
3723 3723 3723 3723 5100
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 14.10
percent
13 11.9 9.5 9 5.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.50
Index Points
104 105 105 101 101
Core Consumer Prices 109.80
Index Points
110 110 110 105 104
Core Inflation Rate 9.80
percent
7.2 6.4 6 5.4 3.5
Inflation Rate Mom 1.50
percent
1.25 1.09 1.09 1 0.6
Food Inflation 17.90
percent
16.1 14.2 13.2 10.5 6.9
CPI Transportation 102.60
Index Points
101 101 101 101 100
Export Prices 117.90
Index Points
116 113 111 109 103
Producer Prices 252.70
Index Points
328 328 179 344 415
Producer Prices Change 16.60
percent
17.9 16.5 12.5 10.9 7.3
Import Prices 114.90
Index Points
112 111 109 108 104
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 14
Interbank Rate 16.41
percent
16.54 15.79 15.09 14.67 14.3
Money Supply M0 321573.00
UAH Million
327650 328192 328054 327688 322792
Money Supply M1 601631.00
UAH Million
618598 623745 625027 624997 617413
Money Supply M2 1208557.00
UAH Million
1201336 1197763 1196341 1195413 1185682
Money Supply M3 1176683.00
UAH Million
1191983 1186658 1184792 1183766 1174222
Foreign Exchange Reserves 18440.00
USD Million
18338 18406 18530 18658 19739
Banks Balance Sheet 1798506.00
UAH Million
1790276 1785631 1781040 1849906 2127762
Loans to Private Sector 742337.65
UAH Million
736780 735429 734170 732913 718346
Deposit Interest Rate 11.50
percent
19 18.4 17.8 17.19 29.56
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1169957.00
UAH Million
1179397 1175173 1169874 1164381 1101767
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1120.40
USD Million
-800 -748 -699 -312 -222
Exports 3780.50
USD Million
3824 3821 3808 3700 3900
Imports 4900.90
USD Million
4825 4769 4718 3850 4200
Current Account -690.00
USD Million
-472 -495 -510 -520 -538
Current Account to GDP -3.60
percent
-2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -1.7
External Debt 117350.00
USD Million
119000 119761 120161 120325 118074
Capital Flows -120.00
USD Million
-464 -463 -528 -541 -583
Gold Reserves 25.19
Tonnes
25.06 24.91 24.81 24.71 24.23
Foreign Direct Investment 587.00
USD Million
766 796 806 841 991
Crude Oil Production 27.00
BBL/D/1K
27.46 27.55 27.65 27.74 28.46
Terms Of Trade 102.60
Index Points
100 99.63 99.23 98.91 98.2
Terrorism Index 6.56
6.93 6.59 6.25 5.92 3.14
Weapons Sales 528.00
USD Million
437 438 439 440 464
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.00
percent
82.9 82.9 82.9 82.9 86.1
Government Budget -2.30
percent of GDP
-1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1
Government Budget Value 47849.59
UAH Million
12345 -1285 -5381 -6086 -6096
Government Spending 49504.00
UAH Million
53435 52353 49467 63502 64075
Government Revenues 1016788.32
UAH Million
744607 581337 465673 384773 198638
Government Debt 699716785.36
UAH Thousand
701504378 699745708 697879169 695997083 681130913
Fiscal Expenditure 1056759.90
UAH Million
637200 418384 319110 274615 238546
Military Expenditure 3479.30
USD Million
3640 3608 3576 3544 3380
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production -0.50
percent
-0.64 -0.89 -1.06 1.1 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 1.00
percent
0.35 0.08 0.07 0.9 0.8
Manufacturing Production 4.40
percent
2.57 1.62 0.84 0.22 -2.21
Changes in Inventories 50565.00
UAH Million
-400 -1200 34400 15100 16500
Internet Speed 12799.43
KBps
12506 12317 12125 11973 10442
IP Addresses 5156332.00
IP
5142279 5135967 5125627 5070108 4626938
Corruption Index 29.00
Points
25 26 26 26 25
Corruption Rank 131.00
128 129 130 131 125
Ease of Doing Business 76.00
82 81 80 79 85
Electricity Production 13942.50
Gigawatt-hour
16609 15607 14615 14804 15149
Competitiveness Index 4.11
Points
4.03 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.04
Competitiveness Rank 81.00
78 78 78 78 76
Business Confidence 115.20
Index Points
114 115 115 114 115
Cement Production 739.00
Thousands of Tonnes
794 909 883 852 864
Steel Production 2060.00
Thousand Tonnes
2084 2150 2200 2245 2509
Mining Production -4.40
percent
-4.38 -4.43 -4.46 -4.48 -4.51
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 60.30
Index Points
61.09 62.67 63.96 65.13 72.66
Retail Sales Mom 22.20
percent
2.83 1.54 0.79 8.4 4.2
Retail Sales Yoy 16.10
percent
14.71 13.41 12.4 4.1 3.2
Consumer Spending 185097.00
UAH Million
174169 171335 175566 208674 218805
Bank Lending Rate 14.70
percent
15.05 15.32 15.58 15.82 18.05
Gasoline Prices 1.06
USD/Liter
1.04 1.04 1.04 1.03 0.97
Consumer Credit 114972.53
UAH Million
115983 116150 116256 116348 116952
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00
percent
19 19 19 19 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 17
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 22.00
percent
24 24 24 24 51
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00
percent
23.63 23.63 23.63 23.63 43.89
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
-0.17 -0.17 -0.17 -0.17 1.92
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 24.89
mm
34.18 53.41 56.02 41.25 47.24
Temperature 1.52
celsius
-3.14 13.6 18.01 2.31 7.86