Ukraine | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ukraine including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ukraine economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.10 9.8 10 9.6 9.4 8.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 16.40 16 14.2 11.9 9.5 5.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 12.50 12 11.5 11 10.5 7.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -570.50 -399 -576 -561 -550 -222 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 82.4 82.9 82.9 82.9 86.1 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 26.52 26.47 26.21 25.94 25.67 22.73 [+]
Stock Market 298.22 295 292 289 286 253 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 93.27 103 89.9 88.5 87.1 119 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 234386.00 248101 220450 237817 267425 263544 UAH Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 41754.00 50643 38114 40362 38749 56692 UAH Million [+]
GDP per capita 2905.86 2820 2760 2760 2760 2960 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 7668.06 7478 7492 7399 7307 7853 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 10537.00 29680 6614 10095 49718 32833 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Construction 6779.00 7485 4094 6626 5661 8731 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 27735.00 30168 25428 28626 25693 34128 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Mining 11296.00 12123 12158 12311 12297 12143 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 13195.00 15162 13529 13347 13275 16907 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Services 35771.00 31473 33149 34756 34284 35675 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Transport 21051.00 22359 19647 20621 20522 24737 UAH Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 916.00 972 984 1010 1025 1159 UAH Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.10 9.8 10 9.6 9.4 8.2 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 311.90 370 332 338 344 370 Thousand [+]
Wages 7114.00 6223 7274 7254 7241 8323 UAH/Month [+]
Wage Growth 36.76 15 32.6 31.12 29.86 6 percent [+]
Population 42.59 41.2 40.56 40.56 40.56 38.37 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58.08 57.73 57.55 57.38 58.36 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Minimum Wages 3200.00 1874 3708 4625 5541 7451 UAH/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4310.00 3952 3916 3884 3856 3717 UAH/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2640.00 3276 2351 2328 2309 4017 UAH/Month [+]
Employed Persons 15658.10 15840 15995 16194 16264 17084 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 65.10 64.89 64.87 65.34 65.38 65.43 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.50 62.4 62.32 62.44 62.46 63.5 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 7771.40 12000 7229 7461 7277 16000 UAH/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 7547.70 6960 6959 6959 6959 6959 UAH/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 16.40 16 14.2 11.9 9.5 5.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.00 101 105 105 105 101 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 107.70 106 108 108 108 104 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 7.70 7.5 7.2 6.4 6 3.5 percent [+]
Import Prices 111.10 107 105 104 104 102 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 304.60 317 328 328 304 415 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 23.40 20.5 17.9 16.5 12.5 7.3 percent [+]
Food Inflation 18.80 16.5 16.1 14.2 13.2 6.9 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 101.50 100 101 101 101 100 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 108.50 101 99.65 98.76 98.34 98.08 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 2.00 1.2 4.79 5.14 5.29 0.6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 12.50 12 11.5 11 10.5 7.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 14.34 14.62 14.43 14.32 14.26 14.22 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 306913.00 305563 304758 304221 303755 299795 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M1 537610.00 541593 540688 540052 539492 534665 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1104321.00 1106680 1105887 1105100 1104323 1097398 UAH Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1123268.00 1121369 1119949 1119010 1118202 1111301 UAH Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 18637.00 19072 19230 19331 19420 20007 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1763845.00 1728884 1754037 1749250 1744505 2127762 UAH Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 701635.51 700339 699123 697908 696700 686144 UAH Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 11.50 17.19 18.42 19.65 20.88 29.56 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1117619.00 1106510 1099898 1093646 1087524 1035713 UAH Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -570.50 -399 -576 -561 -550 -222 USD Million [+]
Exports 3657.50 3620 3612 3621 3629 3900 USD Million [+]
Imports 4228.00 3700 4174 4176 4178 4200 USD Million [+]
Current Account -226.00 -461 -492 -512 -525 -547 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.60 -2.7 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -1.7 percent [+]
External Debt 114836.00 114280 114312 114052 113714 109734 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -564.00 -712 -681 -755 -750 -673 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 25.50 25.26 25.12 25 24.89 24.27 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 97.70 98.1 97.99 97.88 97.82 97.68 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 7.13 9.12 8.94 8.76 8.58 7.19 [+]
Weapons Sales 528.00 440 453 465 478 464 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 32.00 32.32 32.43 32.54 32.65 33.6 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 228.00 803 873 890 901 1002 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.00 82.4 82.9 82.9 82.9 86.1 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.30 -2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -38470.31 -14969 -9343 -7444 -6757 -6380 UAH Million [+]
Government Spending 48786.00 63312 52040 52602 46197 64075 UAH Million [+]
Government Revenues 667156.65 350740 260250 217824 198011 180664 UAH Million [+]
Government Debt 707559736.81 714272714 713976963 712431375 710630062 694078296 UAH Thousand [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 598287.60 262378 218275 218632 220576 220909 UAH Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3479.30 3544 3550 3555 3561 3380 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Industrial Production 1.20 0.5 -0.67 -0.91 -1.08 2.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 3.00 0.7 -0.08 -0.02 -0.02 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.00 2.79 1.72 0.86 0.17 -2.22 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -536.00 14500 -400 -1200 34400 16500 UAH Million [+]
Mining Production 0.70 -1.64 -2.48 -3.01 -3.34 -3.9 percent [+]
Steel Production 1800.00 1927 2006 2074 2134 2441 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 26 25 25 24 25 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 131 130 130 129 125 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 80.00 84 85 86 86 93 [+]
Electricity Production 12051.50 16583 16396 14839 14537 15174 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.11 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.01 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 81.00 78 78 78 78 78 [+]
Business Confidence 117.40 118 118 118 117 115 [+]
Cement Production 1007.00 825 842 879 874 867 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 58.60 60.85 62.37 63.73 64.95 71.63 [+]
Retail Sales Mom 4.50 9.8 1.11 0.85 0.86 4.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 8.10 4.5 7.87 7.69 7.54 3.2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 165664.00 203584 169166 167075 168336 218805 UAH Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 12.86 13.25 13.55 13.86 14.16 16.34 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 109486.02 111447 111866 112154 112412 114298 UAH Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.91 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00 18.56 18.6 18.61 18.63 20.1 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00 18.22 18.1 17.99 17.87 17.35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 22.00 58.69 57.55 56.41 55.28 52.32 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00 49.41 49.39 49.37 49.35 49.37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 -0.25 -0.29 -0.32 -0.36 0.9 percent [+]