South Korea Holds Rates at 3.5% for 11th Straight Time

The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% at its May 2026 meeting, in line with expectations and marking the eighth consecutive hold, even as it remains in an easing cycle. The decision reflected policymakers’ cautious stance, as they balanced geopolitical risks against a softer won and a resurgence of inflation pressures. South Korea’s annual inflation rose to 2.6% in April, up from 2.2% in March and the highest since July 2024, underscoring the impact of higher oil prices. The central bank subsequently raised its inflation forecast for this year to 2.7%, up from 2.2% prior to the Middle East conflict, and expects it to ease to 2.3% in 2027. At the same time, policymakers lifted the 2026 growth outlook to 2.6% from 2%, citing a stronger export outlook driven by semiconductor strength, and projected GDP growth of 2.1% for 2027. The May meeting was also the first chaired by new Governor Shin Hyun-song, who took office last month.

South Korea’s new central bank chief signaled a cautious policy stance as geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook. In his inauguration speech on Tuesday, Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song said policymakers must remain “cautious and flexible” as the Middle East conflict creates a supply shock, complicating both inflation and growth trajectories. He warned that rising oil prices linked to the Iran war are simultaneously pushing inflation higher while weighing on economic activity, a combination that raises risks for financial stability and market volatility. Shin emphasized the need to balance price stability with safeguarding the financial system amid these uncertainties. Having begun his four-year term on Tuesday, he is set to chair his first policy meeting on May 28, where markets will closely watch for signals on how the central bank plans to navigate an increasingly challenging environment.

Bank of Korea governor nominee Shin Hyun-song on Wednesday pledged to prioritize price stability as South Korea faces rising inflation risks and growth uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. At his confirmation hearing, Shin highlighted mounting price pressures and downside risks to growth, promising to balance inflation control, financial stability, and steady expansion. He cautioned inflation could climb in the coming months on higher oil prices and a weaker won, while growth may undershoot forecasts. “Given South Korea’s sensitivity to oil prices, I will place greater emphasis on price stability,” he said. Shin is set to succeed Rhee Chang-yong on April 20, ahead of the May rate decision, but offered no policy guidance. He noted direction will hinge on Middle East developments, with supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz.