Slovenia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Slovenia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Slovenia economy.

Overview	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.60	0.9	0.8	1	1	0.6	percent
Unemployment Rate	8.10	8.3	8	7.7	7.5	6.5	percent
Inflation Rate	2.10	2	2.1	2.5	2.6	2.5	percent
Interest Rate	0.00	0	0	0	0.25	0.75	percent
Balance of Trade	-13.67	190	-90	170	70	-190	EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP	73.60	75	75	73	73	71	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Currency	1.17	1.14	1.13	1.11	1.09	1.02
Stock Market	885.63 points	855	834	813	793	717
Government Bond 10y	0.93 percent	1.09	1.25	1.43	1.63	2.8

GDP	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.60 percent	0.9	0.8	1	1	0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate	4.60 percent	4.7	3.8	3.4	3.7	3.6
GDP	48.77 USD Billion	49	49	51	51	52
GDP Constant Prices	10326.10 EUR Million	10306	10649	10677	10328	11474
Gross National Product	43278.00 EUR Million	41368	44923	44749	41913	48401
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	1945.50 EUR Million	1856	1980	2012	1867	2134
GDP per capita	25662.41 USD	26000	26000	26250	26250	26500
GDP per capita PPP	31400.84 USD	31800	31800	33000	33000	33500
GDP From Agriculture	131.70 EUR Million	171	180	136	186	194
GDP From Construction	418.30 EUR Million	475	508	433	456	547
GDP From Manufacturing	1917.10 EUR Million	1940	2044	1982	2104	2202
GDP From Public Administration	1501.10 EUR Million	1525	1608	1552	1529	1733
GDP From Services	1693.90 EUR Million	2135	1885	1751	2061	2031

LABOUR	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	8.10 percent	8.3	8	7.7	7.5	6.5
Employed Persons	872266.00	874364	879061	881758	884733	897776
Unemployed Persons	74988.00	76183	77624	77408	77140	77261
Long Term Unemployment Rate	2.60 percent	2.39	2.32	2.27	2.21	2.03
Youth Unemployment Rate	10.10 percent	10.38	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4
Labour Costs	111.36 Index Points	114	115	116	117	125
Job Vacancies	13452.00	13019	12899	12896	12897	12896
Wages	1663.00 EUR/Month	1660	1750	1710	1663	1850
Wages in Manufacturing	1625.00 EUR/Month	1565	1770	1660	1635	1850
Wage Growth	3.07 percent	3.23	3.27	3.28	3.29	3.29
Minimum Wages	842.79 EUR/Month	843	843	880	855	925
Population	2.07 Million	2.07	2.07	2.08	2.08	2.08
Retirement Age Women	59.67	59.67	59.67	59.67	60	59.67
Retirement Age Men	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Labor Force Participation Rate	58.30 percent	58.95	58.8	58.5	58.56	58.7
Productivity	101.80 Index Points	115	106	102	107	107
Part Time Employment	99.30 Thousand	98.65	98.55	98.52	98.56	98.55
Employment Change	0.70 percent	0.69	0.69	0.69	0.69	0.69
Employment Rate	69.70 percent	71.42	71.15	70.71	71.19	71.6
Full Time Employment	845.10 Thousand	868	867	855	861	871

PRICES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Inflation Rate	2.10 percent	2	2.1	2.5	2.6	2.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices	104.15 Index Points	104	104	105	107	109
Consumer Price Index CPI	104.07 Index Points	104	104	105	107	109
Core Consumer Prices	103.93 Index Points	103	104	104	106	107
Core Inflation Rate	1.39 percent	1.46	1.51	1.56	1.59	1.7
GDP Deflator	102.00 Index Points	101	101	101	102	102
Producer Prices	103.00 Index Points	103	104	105	105	108
Inflation Rate Mom	0.00 percent	-0.06	0.28	0	0.25	0.15
Producer Prices Change	2.40 percent	2.1	2	2.3	2.3	2.2
CPI Housing Utilities	104.89 Index Points	104	106	107	108	111
CPI Transportation	100.13 Index Points	103	101	101	103	106
Food Inflation	3.30 percent	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3

MONEY	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Interest Rate	0.00 percent	0	0	0	0.25	0.75
Interbank Rate	-0.32 percent	-0.32	-0.32	-0.32	-0.32	0.43
Money Supply M0	5018.00 EUR Million	5084	5139	5196	5253	5816
Money Supply M1	18953.00 EUR Million	19640	20170	20686	21189	25559
Money Supply M2	25457.00 EUR Million	25923	26306	26682	27053	30487
Money Supply M3	25372.00 EUR Million	25359	25359	25359	25359	25359
Foreign Exchange Reserves	269.50 EUR Million	267	268	268	268	268
Banks Balance Sheet	40168.00 EUR	40113	40070	40029	39990	39664
Loans To Private Sector	9281.00 EUR Million	9202	9168	9136	9107	8904
Private Debt to GDP	132.71 percent	124	123	122	121	122
Central Bank Balance Sheet	14831.00 EUR	14833	14833	14833	14833	14833

TRADE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-13.67 EUR Million	190	-90	170	70	-190
Exports	2645.63 EUR Million	2710	2290	2850	2720	2620
Imports	2659.31 EUR Million	2520	2380	2680	2650	2810
Current Account	248.20 EUR Million	258	258	258	258	258
Current Account to GDP	6.40 percent	6.1	6.1	5.7	5.7	5.4
External Debt	43094.50 EUR Million	43148	43109	43154	43143	43141
Capital Flows	490.70 EUR Million	174	156	158	158	158
Foreign Direct Investment	-41.20 EUR Million	85.09	78.09	77.33	77.41	77.43
Tourist Arrivals	469183.00	263600	259500	306700	297700	292200
Gold Reserves	3.20 Tonnes	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2
Terrorism Index	0.00	0	0	0	0	0
Crude Oil Production	0.01 BBL/D/1K	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	73.60 percent	75	75	73	73	71
Government Budget	0.00 percent of GDP	0.4	0.4	-2.18	-2.33	0.2
Government Budget Value	37.00 EUR Million	-0.31	-6.89	-7.23	-5.76	-6.37
Government Spending	1847.10 EUR Million	1900	1972	1910	1911	2125
Government Spending to GDP	43.10 percent	44.51	44.55	44.75	44.94	47.21
Government Revenues	1417.00 EUR Million	1468	1444	1446	1448	1447
Government Debt	30139.29 EUR Million	30187	29967	30490	30247	30591
Fiscal Expenditure	1380.00 EUR Million	1468	1452	1454	1453	1453
Military Expenditure	463.20 USD Million	483	485	488	492	516
Asylum Applications	125.00 persons	150	148	151	150	151

BUSINESS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Business Confidence	8.00 Percentage Points	11	10	9	9	10
Industrial Production	6.00 percent	4.79	3.2	4.41	4.37	2.7
Industrial Production Mom	0.70 percent	0.26	0.23	0.23	0.22	0.22
Manufacturing Production	6.50 percent	5.13	4.83	4.7	4.64	4.61
Capacity Utilization	86.00 percent	85.43	84.7	83.87	83.04	80.58
Car Registrations	7554.00	7395	7359	7367	7367	7367
Internet Speed	13655.66 KBps	13021	13020	12998	12987	12970
IP Addresses	869230.00 IP	919514	915599	914177	914286	916393
Mining Production	8.10 percent	2.7	1.88	1.89	1.92	1.91
Steel Production	59.00 Thousand Tonnes	57.87	58.48	58.36	58.47	58.4
Changes In Inventories	1.00 EUR Million	1	1	1	1	1
Competitiveness Index	4.48 Points	4.39	4.39	4.44	4.46	4.45
Competitiveness Rank	48.00	56	56	49	47	47
Ease of Doing Business	37.00	38	40	41	42	48
Electricity Production	1348.00 Gigawatt-hour	1326	1321	1322	1322	1322
Corruption Index	61.00 Points	62	62	62	62	62
Corruption Rank	34.00	33	33	33	33	32

CONSUMER	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	1.00 Index Points	-1	1	2	2	2
Retail Sales MoM	3.10 percent	-0.11	-0.02	0.03	0.04	0.04
Retail Sales YoY	3.80 percent	1.91	1.91	1.91	1.92	1.93
Consumer Spending	5340.90 EUR Million	5384	5529	5522	5393	5957
Personal Savings	17.07 percent	10.92	7.38	16.47	15.13	8.38
Consumer Credit	2469.00 EUR Million	2556	2594	2628	2658	2829
Bank Lending Rate	2.49 percent	2.49	2.49	2.49	2.49	3.24
Gasoline Prices	1.54 USD/Liter	1.46	1.38	1.3	1.23	0.69
Households Debt To Income	44.59 percent	43	42.98	42.57	42.16	36.12

HOUSING	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Construction Output	30.30 percent	22.45	22.67	22.76	22.78	22.79
Housing Index	121.19 Index points	123	124	124	123	121
Building Permits	259.00	238	239	239	239	239
Home Ownership Rate	75.60 percent	75.71	75.69	75.72	75.74	77.13

TAXES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	19.00 percent	19	19	19.25	20	19
Personal Income Tax Rate	50.00 percent	50	50	50	50	45
Sales Tax Rate	22.00 percent	22	22	22	22	22
Social Security Rate	38.20 percent	38.2	38.2	38	38	38
Social Security Rate For Companies	16.10 percent	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1
Social Security Rate For Employees	22.10 percent	22.1	22.1	22.1	22.1	22.1

CLIMATE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Temperature	1.91 celsius	18.19	5.14	1.56	15.99	9.9
Precipitation	2.54 mm	129	128	79.79	110	117

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