Serbian Central Bank Holds Rates

The National Bank of Serbia kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.75% during its June 2026 meeting, adopting a cautious stance while assessing the economic fallout from the Middle East war and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Policymakers expressed concerns that the energy crisis could fuel inflation and weigh on growth. The NBS now explicitly forecasts a temporary breach of the upper limit of its inflation tolerance band around the fourth quarter of 2026. The central bank targets inflation at 3%, with a tolerance range of ±1.5 percentage points. It also confirmed that if global oil price increases trigger stronger second-round effects, such as higher inflation expectations, the NBS will respond decisively using all available policy tools.

The National Bank of Serbia kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.75% at its May 2026 meeting, extending the current policy stance that has been in place since late 2024. The central bank also left its deposit and lending facility rates unchanged at 4.5% and 7%, respectively. Recent geopolitical tensions and inflation trends were taken into the account. Headline inflation rose below the central target value at 2.8% in March, and inflationary pressures are expected to gradually intensify later in the year. Rising costs and weaker disposable income could weigh on household consumption and limit economic growth prospects. The economy expanded 3% in the first quarter of the year, supported by an increase in the processing industry, which boosted exports, retail trade and tourism. However, economic outlook remains clouded by global uncertainty, and policymakers will continue to pursue a prudent monetary policy while continuing to safeguard relative exchange rate stability.

The Central Bank of Serbia kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.75% at its April 2026 meeting, a level it has maintained since late 2024. The deposit and lending facility rates were also left steady at 4.5% and 7.0%, respectively. Policymakers were primarily guided by current and expected inflation trends, as well as risks stemming from the global environment that could affect the inflation outlook. Economic authorities in Serbia continue to implement coordinated measures aimed at preserving price stability and mitigating the impact of external shocks. The government has already introduced steps to curb the rise in domestic fuel prices, including a ban on petroleum product exports and a reduction in fuel excise duties. The central bank continues to pursue a cautious monetary policy stance while maintaining relative exchange rate stability. Policymakers will continue to monitor the domestic and international markets, making future decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.