Serbia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 14.80 12.5 12.5 14.5 13.1 10 percent
Inflation Rate 2.30 1.8 1.7 2.4 2.8 2.9 percent
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3 2.75 2.75 2.75 percent
Balance of Trade -449.30 -340 -680 -360 -610 -390 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 61.50 71.6 71.6 71.2 71.2 70.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Stock Market 742.40
points
721 707 694 680 630
Currency 100.52
103 105 107 109 118
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50
percent
0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.60
percent
3.6 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.3
GDP 41.43
USD Billion
43 43 45 45 46
GDP Constant Prices 792452.40
RSD Million
857428 896378 814641 823375 957441
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 200415.30
RSD Million
225626 239079 206027 200477 255366
GDP per capita 5992.28
USD
6000 6000 6200 6200 6350
GDP per capita PPP 14048.88
USD
14162 14162 14253 14253 14341
GDP From Agriculture 52642.80
RSD Million
74277 69906 54117 54429 74668
GDP From Construction 31535.60
RSD Million
41793 47624 32419 36804 50868
GDP From Manufacturing 168717.20
RSD Million
176319 181734 173441 175301 194114
GDP From Public Administration 99631.30
RSD Million
105804 114996 102421 105241 122830
GDP From Services 120263.70
RSD Million
139827 146988 123631 130925 157001
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 14.80
percent
12.5 12.5 14.5 13.1 10
Employed Persons 2688300.00
2673442 2672967 2673044 2673032 2673033
Unemployed Persons 594.10
Thousand
588 592 592 592 592
Wages 49117.00
RSD/Month
50200 56000 50000 49151 60000
Minimum Wages 285.41
EUR/Month
285 285 340 299 380
Population 7.00
Million
7 7 6.94 6.94 6.89
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62.5 62 63
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 33.30
percent
28.49 29.82 28.08 26.65 24.46
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.20
percent
56.13 55.34 55.04 55.97 56.08
Labour Costs 108.97
Index Points
105 105 105 105 105
Employment Rate 46.30
percent
46.13 46.13 46.13 46.13 46.13
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
1.8 1.7 2.4 2.8 2.9
Consumer Price Index CPI 195.40
Index Points
194 194 197 201 206
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.31 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.25
Food Inflation 2.50
percent
4.3 4 3.8 2.69 4
Cpi Housing Utilities 208.90
Index Points
210 211 213 214 225
CPI Transportation 176.60
Index Points
172 173 175 182 183
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 3.00
percent
3 3 2.75 2.75 2.75
Money Supply M0 159046.00
RSD Million
155426 157067 154962 156961 156947
Foreign Exchange Reserves 11104.30
EUR Million
11211 11167 11151 11150 11151
Deposit Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.75 1.5 1.5 1.5
Lending Rate 4.25
percent
4.25 4.25 4 4 4
Loans To Private Sector 1028347.00
SRB Million
1037341 1043319 1048402 1053099 1087779
Interbank Rate 2.89
percent
2.89 2.89 2.64 2.64 2.64
Money Supply M1 669565.00
RSD Million
684492 700015 715577 731022 879784
Money Supply M2 893108.00
RSD Million
908958 925625 942304 958929 1122009
Money Supply M3 2345682.00
RSD Million
2380248 2412902 2445689 2478523 2806956
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -449.30
USD Million
-340 -680 -360 -610 -390
Exports 1669.70
USD Million
1910 1640 2150 1990 2410
Imports 2119.00
USD Million
2250 2320 2510 2600 2800
Current Account 55.60
USD Million
-220 -208 -209 -215 -248
Current Account to GDP -5.70
percent
-3.8 -3.8 -3.4 -3.4 -3.2
External Debt 25445.10
EUR Million
25394 25339 25287 25241 24921
Capital Flows 96.00
USD Million
-129 -221 -120 -174 -154
Gold Reserves 19.50
Tonnes
19.3 19.15 19.3 19.47 19.24
Terrorism Index 0.04
0.22 0.22 0.26 0.31 0.88
Tourist Arrivals 77627.00
136100 108600 106400 123900 117000
Weapons Sales 2.00
USD Million
15.8 15.22 12.75 10.28 18.71
Foreign Direct Investment 254.90
EUR Million
258 260 260 260 260
Crude Oil Production 18.00
BBL/D/1K
18.13 18.12 18.12 18.12 18.12
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 61.50
percent
71.6 71.6 71.2 71.2 70.6
Government Budget 0.80
percent of GDP
0.8 0.8 1.6 1.45 1.1
Government Debt 2850746.24
RSD Million
2861097 2861490 2862380 2863237 2869696
Government Spending 171918.40
RSD Million
178070 208905 176732 180419 223136
Military Expenditure 693.80
USD Million
711 706 707 708 718
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 0.50
percent
1.53 2.13 2.33 2.36 2.36
Manufacturing Production -2.10
percent
-1.36 1.68 -0.01 0.53 0.48
Internet Speed 11086.42
KBps
12039 12305 12614 12795 13749
IP Addresses 1302521.00
IP
1284589 1285048 1281759 1280243 1271781
Steel Production 182.70
Thousand Tonnes
156 151 149 148 148
Ease of Doing Business 43.00
52 56 56 55 62
Corruption Index 41.00
Points
40 39 39 39 36
Corruption Rank 77.00
72 68 69 70 67
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
3.94 3.94 4.05 4.08 4.09
Competitiveness Rank 78.00
90 90 82 79 79
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales YoY 3.50
percent
4.04 4.01 4.02 4.02 4.02
Consumer Credit 963274.00
SRB Million
991091 1010653 1024283 1033761 1054803
Gasoline Prices 1.46
USD/Liter
1.38 1.31 1.23 1.16 0.68
Retail Sales Mom 0.50
percent
1.02 0.56 0.23 0.38 0.36
Consumer Spending 799537.10
RSD Million
812682 852429 821924 789253 910498
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Home Ownership Rate 82.40
percent
81.12 80.82 81.19 81.55 81.01
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 37.80
percent
37.8 37.8 37 37 37
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90
percent
18.03 18.03 18.07 18.08 18.13
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90
percent
19.85 19.85 19.22 19.01 19.14
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 23.08
celsius
19.1 5.18 1.07 14.95 10.23