This page has economic forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 11.90 12.5 12.3 12.5 12.7 10 percent
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.9 percent
Interest Rate 3.00 3 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 percent
Balance of Trade -467.90 -680 -360 -610 -487 -390 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 61.50 71.6 71.2 71.2 71.2 70.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Stock Market 745.70
points
722 718 713 709 692
Currency 103.45
103 104 104 105 108
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80
percent
0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.70
percent
3.5 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.7
GDP 41.43
USD Billion
43 45 45 45 46
GDP Constant Prices 840678.90
RSD Million
899306 820623 870103 867581 964288
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 225469.10
RSD Million
239886 207302 233361 232684 257219
GDP per capita 5992.28
USD
6000 6200 6200 6200 6350
GDP per capita PPP 14048.88
USD
14162 14253 14253 14253 14341
GDP From Agriculture 61296.50
RSD Million
70117 56778 63442 63258 75183
GDP From Construction 43006.90
RSD Million
47804 33030 44512 44383 51259
GDP From Manufacturing 173874.50
RSD Million
182337 174348 179960 179438 195512
GDP From Public Administration 106393.80
RSD Million
115486 102917 110118 109798 123831
GDP From Services 132383.80
RSD Million
147441 123961 137017 136620 158095
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.90
percent
12.5 12.3 12.5 12.7 10
Employed Persons 2896800.00
2954877 2957202 2956781 2956857 2956845
Unemployed Persons 553.96
Thousand
553 557 558 557 557
Wages 49773.00
RSD/Month
56000 50000 49551 49558 60000
Minimum Wages 282.51
EUR/Month
285 340 299 299 380
Population 7.00
Million
7 6.94 6.94 6.94 6.89
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62.5 62 62 63
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 27.50
percent
32.22 31.08 27.35 28.78 29.97
Labor Force Participation Rate 55.20
percent
56.23 54.58 55.65 57.32 57.68
Labour Costs 113.82
Index Points
106 107 107 107 107
Employment Rate 48.60
percent
49.57 49.6 49.6 49.6 49.6
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2.3 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.9
Consumer Price Index CPI 195.40
Index Points
196 198 201 200 207
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4
Food Inflation 1.70
percent
4 3.8 1.76 1.75 4
Cpi Housing Utilities 211.10
Index Points
212 213 215 216 227
CPI Transportation 180.50
Index Points
174 176 182 183 184
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 3.00
percent
3 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
Money Supply M0 171075.00
RSD Million
170400 167850 169564 167652 169515
Foreign Exchange Reserves 11550.40
EUR Million
11535 11577 11573 11572 11573
Deposit Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Lending Rate 4.25
percent
4.25 4 4 4 4
Loans To Private Sector 1040587.00
SRB Million
1049390 1056069 1061952 1067421 1104802
Interbank Rate 3.01
percent
2.98 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73
Money Supply M1 693645.00
RSD Million
709457 725945 742376 758692 900747
Money Supply M2 917207.00
RSD Million
934319 951908 969469 986963 1141334
Money Supply M3 2386207.00
RSD Million
2420394 2453780 2487088 2520391 2820122
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -467.90
USD Million
-680 -360 -610 -487 -390
Exports 1617.30
USD Million
1640 2150 1990 1613 2410
Imports 2085.20
USD Million
2320 2510 2600 2100 2800
Current Account -249.90
USD Million
-200 -300 -150 -120 -280
Current Account to GDP -5.70
percent
-5.6 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -5
External Debt 26107.90
EUR Million
26176 26224 26287 26327 26603
Capital Flows -215.00
USD Million
-200 -174 -169 -162 -161
Gold Reserves 19.80
Tonnes
20.02 19.8 19.53 19.68 19.85
Terrorism Index 0.04
0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Tourist Arrivals 227126.00
127700 92200 154100 181500 144300
Weapons Sales 2.00
USD Million
15.22 12.75 10.28 7.81 18.71
Foreign Direct Investment 277.10
EUR Million
279 275 276 276 276
Crude Oil Production 17.00
BBL/D/1K
17.07 17.06 17.06 17.06 17.06
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 61.50
percent
71.6 71.2 71.2 71.2 70.6
Government Budget 0.80
percent of GDP
0.8 1 1 1 1.1
Government Debt 2835866.31
RSD Million
2830291 2826524 2822972 2819599 2795939
Government Spending 195781.80
RSD Million
209478 177560 202634 202047 224614
Military Expenditure 693.80
USD Million
706 707 708 709 718
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Industrial Production -1.20
percent
2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.1
Manufacturing Production -1.30
percent
1.09 -1.54 -0.13 -0.56 -0.53
Internet Speed 11086.42
KBps
12305 12614 12795 12756 13749
IP Addresses 1302521.00
IP
1285048 1281759 1280243 1280514 1271781
Steel Production 122.80
Thousand Tonnes
135 137 138 138 139
Ease of Doing Business 48.00
41 45 47 49 49
Corruption Index 41.00
Points
41 41 41 41 41
Corruption Rank 77.00
77 77 77 77 77
Competitiveness Index 60.88
Points
61.38 61.38 61.38 61.38 63.88
Competitiveness Rank 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Retail Sales YoY 5.90
percent
3.3 4.5 4.1 3.8 4.1
Consumer Credit 998666.00
SRB Million
1023557 1040997 1053253 1061879 1081580
Gasoline Prices 1.48
USD/Liter
1.46 1.43 1.4 1.38 1.28
Retail Sales Mom -4.80
percent
1.06 0.55 0.37 0.46 0.44
Consumer Spending 804683.10
RSD Million
855112 826000 832847 830433 916901
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Home Ownership Rate 82.40
percent
80.82 81.19 81.55 81.92 81.01
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 37.80
percent
37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90
percent
17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90
percent
19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 23.08
celsius
5.18 1.07 14.95 12.3 10.23



Serbia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook