Serbia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 14.60 12.4 12 11.7 12.2 10.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.50 3 2.8 2.9 3 2.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.00 4 4 3.75 3.75 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -303.00 -371 -370 -374 -374 -374 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 72.90 72.1 72.1 72.1 71.6 70.6 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Stock Market 709.32 713 706 684 691 576 points [+]
Currency 108.24 110 111 114 113 130 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.20 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 37.16 44.45 39.97 49.12 38.5 75.25 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 758441.50 794166 821472 838744 763273 824808 RSD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 169305.10 187587 200014 199089 171437 196046 RSD Million [+]
GDP per capita 5663.40 5647 5668 5689 5699 5762 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13277.75 13148 13356 13563 13577 13501 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 51857.20 58102 80497 73953 52994 71574 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 25315.50 35328 37688 38639 25094 37293 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 161874.80 164440 161594 166521 161794 165140 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 97963.00 102335 98016 102283 98067 101997 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Services 114752.80 124207 131974 136147 119172 133162 RSD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 14.60 12.4 12 11.7 12.2 10.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2652200.00 2773022 2808573 2742079 2679162 2757387 [+]
Unemployed Persons 676.69 671 674 676 676 675 Thousand [+]
Wages 49635.00 47500 46818 47524 47402 47390 RSD/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 249.69 249 250 249 245 244 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.08 7.04 7.04 7.04 7.01 6.96 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.60 61.57 61.57 61.57 61.87 61.79 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 64.9 64.9 64.9 65.09 65.14 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.30 51.49 52.34 51.81 50.76 50.85 percent [+]
Labour Costs 94.69 104 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Employment Rate 45.50 48.31 48.54 47.36 47.73 50.63 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 31.20 26.8 25.62 28.24 26.69 26.05 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.50 3 2.8 2.9 3 2.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 190.60 191 192 193 194 206 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.50 0.12 0.16 0.25 0.24 0.24 percent [+]
Food Inflation 3.00 2.46 2.33 2.28 2.15 2.1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 172.50 172 171 171 171 171 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.00 4 4 3.75 3.75 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 142175.00 146598 144767 146683 144780 146679 RSD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9492.20 9499 9455 9447 9445 9445 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.54 3.53 3.54 3.55 3.55 3.55 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 589531.00 593311 607515 621567 635513 782167 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 775897.00 778019 788441 799245 810045 928774 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2184929.00 2198811 2229924 2262960 2296255 2662120 RSD Million [+]
Lending Rate 5.50 5.58 5.91 6.27 6.56 6.89 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 987367.00 986112 982519 981346 980597 975245 SRB Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -303.00 -371 -370 -374 -374 -374 USD Million [+]
Exports 1326.70 1307 1301 1308 1310 1310 USD Million [+]
Imports 1629.60 1705 1686 1706 1709 1707 USD Million [+]
Current Account -85.00 -289 -249 -241 -241 -255 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.00 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3.8 -3.2 percent [+]
External Debt 26592.10 26857 26891 26987 27095 27814 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -128.00 -252 -194 -201 -166 -143 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 18.84 18.62 18.43 18.59 18.8 18.51 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 167.66 177 176 177 177 177 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.09 0.5 0.39 0.27 0.27 0.27 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 98429.00 127116 115109 91287 99273 103830 [+]
Weapons Sales 29.00 14.82 12.64 10.47 13.18 15.26 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 72.90 72.1 72.1 72.1 71.6 70.6 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.90 -3.58 -2.86 -2.15 -2.02 -1.38 percent of GDP [+]
Government Debt 2975468.05 2947382 2899004 2874811 2861733 2843046 RSD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 714.30 743 738 733 731 739 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 158278.60 177978 158365 177892 158451 177391 RSD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production -2.60 -0.86 1.14 2.02 2.24 2.25 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 9.30 5.15 3.5 2.6 2.12 1.59 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 50 51 51 54 82 [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 43 44 44 44 48 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 72.00 72 72 72 72 72 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.97 3.86 3.86 3.86 3.89 3.9 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 90.00 95 95 95 90 88 [+]
Steel Production 119.10 114 109 107 106 105 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Retail Sales YoY -0.90 0.08 0.67 0.68 0.67 0.67 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 879840.00 886466 902414 911780 918978 930124 SRB Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom 0.80 -1.56 -0.47 0.47 0.16 0.18 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Spending 764516.70 772301 802500 816311 796310 861775 RSD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Home Ownership Rate 81.10 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 14.99 14.99 14.99 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.80 38.01 37.98 37.94 37.83 36.78 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90 17.79 17.82 17.84 17.87 18.24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90 19.74 19.48 19.22 19.21 19.02 percent [+]