Serbia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.80 11.7 12.2 11.5 11.6 9.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.20 2.9 3 3.2 3 2.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate 3.50 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -407.50 -424 -434 -442 -450 -486 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 72.90 72.1 71.6 71.6 71.6 70.6 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Stock Market 730.90 715 708 700 693 614 points [+]
Currency 100.91 101 99.5 98.48 97.47 86.3 [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 37.16 49.12 35.32 34.85 34.37 75.25 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 801438.00 832902 779782 794875 810181 810544 RSD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 195016.90 199060 178355 189724 193797 192218 RSD Million [+]
GDP per capita 5852.08 5910 5970 5970 5970 6150 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13720.09 13729 13635 13541 13447 12504 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 52946.40 74026 52966 53242 72881 71162 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 35801.20 39640 27192 34436 38344 37829 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 170526.00 165269 161176 162614 161089 154981 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 102374.10 106349 100828 102841 99937 101915 RSD Million [+]
GDP From Services 127359.10 133072 121755 125640 125517 125963 RSD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.80 11.7 12.2 11.5 11.6 9.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2881000.00 2867527 2816644 2939109 2946449 2655260 [+]
Unemployed Persons 638.72 646 653 660 667 712 Thousand [+]
Wages 47220.00 47707 47803 47829 47798 47553 RSD/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 249.69 240 232 229 231 235 EUR/Month [+]
Population 7.04 7.04 7.01 7.01 7.01 6.95 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.60 61.57 61.72 61.79 61.87 61.79 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 64.9 64.9 64.9 64.9 64.56 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.50 54.35 52.96 54.17 55.38 52.84 percent [+]
Labour Costs 106.69 104 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Employment Rate 48.10 48.06 47.37 49.58 49.79 45.89 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 28.90 32.08 32.8 28.98 30.33 34.18 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.20 2.9 3 3.2 3 2.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 190.70 191 190 190 190 187 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.37 0.43 0.46 0.47 0.48 percent [+]
Food Inflation 2.10 2.22 3.56 4.9 5.84 6.22 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 168.80 168 167 166 166 162 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.50 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 141813.00 142592 142384 142171 141958 140073 RSD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 10635.70 10864 10884 10847 10796 10356 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.25 2.63 3.09 3.51 3.86 5.39 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.07 3.16 3.36 3.66 3.99 6.33 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 597507.00 596298 595595 594744 593877 586155 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 802320.00 803206 802585 801468 800267 789457 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2191643.00 2194642 2195290 2193899 2191655 2166650 RSD Million [+]
Lending Rate 5.25 5.72 6.52 7.41 8.29 12.45 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 1006876.00 1013369 1013281 1011877 1009916 989616 SRB Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -407.50 -424 -434 -442 -450 -486 USD Million [+]
Exports 1399.70 1398 1381 1364 1349 1224 USD Million [+]
Imports 1807.20 1798 1775 1755 1736 1597 USD Million [+]
Current Account -153.60 -175 -192 -204 -213 -244 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.00 -4.2 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.2 percent [+]
External Debt 26592.10 27131 27116 27082 27026 26198 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows -192.00 -167 -180 -186 -189 -194 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 18.96 18.1 17.78 17.77 17.6 16.29 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 147.93 263 299 327 349 416 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 19.00 18.6 18.43 18.26 18.11 17.15 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.09 0.87 1 1.13 1.26 2.02 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 136605.00 65400 64900 75900 81000 77200 [+]
Weapons Sales 29.00 6.42 9.53 12.64 15.75 11.91 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 72.90 72.1 71.6 71.6 71.6 70.6 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.20 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Debt 2839423.41 2763806 2735718 2717558 2704724 2643217 RSD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 714.30 763 767 770 774 829 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 175504.50 187827 164869 176870 163213 176237 RSD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Industrial Production 7.30 3.79 2.62 2.33 2.31 2.33 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.70 2.61 2.11 1.87 1.75 1.64 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 51 54 56 58 82 [+]
Corruption Index 42.00 41 41 41 40 39 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 72.00 79 78 77 76 85 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.97 3.86 3.83 3.81 3.79 3.84 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 90.00 92 91 91 90 94 [+]
Steel Production 154.90 123 113 107 102 93.4 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Retail Sales YoY 4.40 4.53 4.7 4.85 4.97 5.39 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 897015.00 910861 916591 919436 920366 902121 SRB Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom 2.70 0.25 0.33 0.25 0.27 0.27 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.41 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.37 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Spending 767755.70 770453 768689 769319 768431 761221 RSD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Home Ownership Rate 81.10 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 14.01 14.01 14.01 14.01 12.42 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 14.53 14.53 14.53 14.53 14.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.80 36.8 36.61 36.42 36.22 36.03 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90 18.06 18.14 18.22 18.3 18.64 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90 18.03 17.78 17.53 17.28 17.91 percent [+]