Serbia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.6 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 14.70 12 12.5 12.5 13.1 10 percent
Inflation Rate 1.10 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 percent
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3 3 2.75 2.75 percent
Balance of Trade -609.20 -490 -340 -680 -360 -390 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 61.50 71.6 71.6 71.6 71.2 70.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Stock Market 743.08
points
730 715 699 684 627
Currency 100.38
98.12 100 102 104 113
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent
0.6 0.5 0.7 1.6 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.50
percent
4.1 3.6 3.2 2.8 3.3
GDP 37.16
USD Billion
38.65 37.22 56.98 67.65 75.25
GDP Constant Prices 868583.70
RSD Million
817867 856729 896378 779678 957441
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 231665.80
RSD Million
199015 225626 239079 174046 255366
GDP per capita 5852.08
USD
5970 5970 5970 6020 6150
GDP per capita PPP 13720.09
USD
13734 13815 13896 13763 13684
GDP From Agriculture 67738.50
RSD Million
54032 74277 69906 53309 74668
GDP From Construction 46147.00
RSD Million
36535 41793 47624 26024 50868
GDP From Manufacturing 176099.10
RSD Million
174022 176319 181734 166407 194114
GDP From Public Administration 111430.60
RSD Million
104473 105804 114996 100706 122830
GDP From Services 142429.90
RSD Million
129970 139827 146988 117966 157001
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 14.70
percent
12 12.5 12.5 13.1 10
Employed Persons 2763600.00
2833390 2845100 2841186 2842494 2842167
Unemployed Persons 618.32
Thousand
681 727 765 784 777
Wages 47819.00
RSD/Month
51000 50200 56000 50000 60000
Minimum Wages 285.41
EUR/Month
285 285 285 340 380
Population 7.04
Million
7.01 7.01 7.04 7.04 7.04
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62.5 63
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 33.30
percent
30.65 29.95 30.23 30.12 30.15
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.20
percent
54.25 55.35 54.3 55.3 54.53
Labour Costs 109.87
Index Points
103 101 101 103 102
Employment Rate 46.30
percent
47.37 47.71 47.57 47.63 47.61
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.10
percent
1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9
Consumer Price Index CPI 193.50
Index Points
194 194 195 197 206
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.4 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43
Food Inflation 1.60
percent
4.5 4.3 4 3.8 4
CPI Transportation 172.20
Index Points
173 172 174 175 184
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 3.00
percent
3 3 3 2.75 2.75
Money Supply M0 151880.00
RSD Million
149279 146714 147955 146362 147568
Foreign Exchange Reserves 10429.30
EUR Million
9725 9696 9672 9650 9442
Deposit Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25
Lending Rate 4.25
percent
4.75 4.5 4.5 4.25 4.25
Loans To Private Sector 1011709.00
SRB Million
1005953 1007074 1008244 1009365 1018276
Interbank Rate 2.87
percent
2.87 2.62 2.62 2.37 2.37
Money Supply M1 632921.00
RSD Million
649419 663180 676699 690116 831574
Money Supply M2 838634.00
RSD Million
844422 855722 867372 879060 1007448
Money Supply M3 2255146.00
RSD Million
2281202 2312942 2345212 2377545 2733297
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -609.20
USD Million
-490 -340 -680 -360 -390
Exports 1789.30
USD Million
1720 1910 1640 2150 2410
Imports 2398.50
USD Million
2210 2250 2320 2510 2800
Current Account -423.50
USD Million
-264 -252 -250 -250 -251
Current Account to GDP -5.70
percent
-3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.4 -3.2
External Debt 25735.50
EUR Million
25566 25548 25507 25467 25192
Capital Flows -258.00
USD Million
-134 -180 -83.42 -181 -137
Gold Reserves 19.40
Tonnes
19.56 19.42 19.22 19.31 19.33
Terrorism Index 0.04
0.23 0.22 0.22 0.26 0.88
Tourist Arrivals 77627.00
70200 78900 83800 83600 81600
Weapons Sales 2.00
USD Million
2 2 2 2 2
Foreign Direct Investment 177.20
EUR Million
210 212 212 212 212
Crude Oil Production 19.00
BBL/D/1K
18.63 18.47 18.31 18.17 17.11
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 61.50
percent
71.6 71.6 71.6 71.2 70.6
Government Budget 0.80
percent of GDP
0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.04 1.1
Government Debt 2808170.00
RSD Million
2849603 2850000 2855517 2856305 2856877
Government Spending 202426.90
RSD Million
179102 178070 208905 162710 223136
Military Expenditure 693.80
USD Million
743 738 733 731 736
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production 4.10
percent
1.99 2.26 2.4 2.44 2.45
Manufacturing Production 2.80
percent
8.41 4.19 10.25 7.41 7.87
Internet Speed 11086.42
KBps
12147 12039 12305 12614 13749
IP Addresses 1302521.00
IP
1282442 1284589 1285048 1281759 1271781
Steel Production 137.10
Thousand Tonnes
135 132 131 131 131
Ease of Doing Business 43.00
43 43 43 43 43
Corruption Index 41.00
Points
41 41 41 41 41
Corruption Rank 77.00
77 77 77 77 77
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05
Competitiveness Rank 78.00
84 84 84 84 84
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Retail Sales YoY 0.90
percent
4.58 3.52 2.91 3.85 3.78
Consumer Credit 924854.00
SRB Million
931534 945843 960426 975113 1137064
Gasoline Prices 1.49
USD/Liter
1.39 1.31 1.24 1.17 0.81
Retail Sales Mom 16.60
percent
15.78 -8.01 5.28 -1.84 0.61
Consumer Spending 825997.10
RSD Million
783495 812682 852429 785923 910498
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Home Ownership Rate 82.40
percent
81.43 81.12 80.82 81.19 81.01
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 37.80
percent
37.8 37.8 37.8 37 36
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90
percent
17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90
percent
19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 23.08
celsius
14.7 19.1 5.18 1.07 10.23