Serbia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 12.90 12.2 11.5 11.6 11.4 9.6 percent
Inflation Rate 3.00 3 3.2 3 2.7 2.6 percent
Interest Rate 3.50 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.75 3.75 percent
Balance of Trade -644.00 -583 -573 -566 -560 -529 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 72.90 71.6 71.6 71.6 71.6 70.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Stock Market 760.94
points
751 735 719 704 590
Currency 95.12
98.88 101 103 105 114
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60
percent
0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50
percent
2.5 2.7 3 3.5 3.5
GDP 37.16
USD Billion
40.07 38.65 37.22 56.98 75.25
GDP Constant Prices 841580.40
RSD Million
781360 796155 828340 833330 821141
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 221636.70
RSD Million
181018 190427 210833 206815 202364
GDP per capita 5852.08
USD
5970 5970 5970 5970 6150
GDP per capita PPP 13720.09
USD
13432 13531 13630 13729 12504
GDP From Agriculture 72963.30
RSD Million
54469 53469 70769 72482 70666
GDP From Construction 41054.10
RSD Million
27162 34431 39970 39355 38357
GDP From Manufacturing 173201.60
RSD Million
165928 164957 165213 165385 158372
GDP From Public Administration 103933.20
RSD Million
102190 102879 102281 105426 103180
GDP From Services 137354.50
RSD Million
123845 126170 131774 134003 129771
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.90
percent
12.2 11.5 11.6 11.4 9.6
Employed Persons 2881900.00
2722241 2827448 2732437 2635849 2566505
Unemployed Persons 617.38
Thousand
625 632 639 646 704
Wages 54344.00
RSD/Month
49436 49831 49418 49757 49345
Minimum Wages 285.41
EUR/Month
285 285 285 285 380
Population 7.04
Million
7.01 7.01 7.01 7.01 6.95
Retirement Age Women 61.60
62 62 62 62 62
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 28.80
percent
34.05 31.03 33.62 35.49 36.66
Labor Force Participation Rate 55.30
percent
52.04 53.72 54.35 52.57 51.11
Labour Costs 94.75
Index Points
102 103 103 103 103
Employment Rate 48.20
percent
45.79 47.62 46.06 44.6 43.47
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.00
percent
3 3.2 3 2.7 2.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 191.20
Index Points
191 191 191 191 187
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.38 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45
Food Inflation 4.16
percent
4.3 4.5 4.3 4 4
CPI Transportation 170.30
Index Points
170 170 170 169 164
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.50
percent
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.75 3.75
Money Supply M0 163944.00
RSD Million
155703 155081 154837 154612 151987
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9647.70
EUR Million
9427 9297 9259 9241 9124
Deposit Interest Rate 2.00
percent
2.13 2.61 3.05 3.44 5.38
Lending Rate 5.00
percent
5.17 5.83 6.67 7.52 12.45
Loans To Private Sector 1011434.00
SRB Million
1017839 1019473 1018860 1017294 992029
Interbank Rate 3.13
percent
3.17 3.42 3.73 4.05 6.78
Money Supply M1 669686.00
RSD Million
673360 672979 672152 671215 659735
Money Supply M2 872081.00
RSD Million
878401 878161 877075 875840 860720
Money Supply M3 2275502.00
RSD Million
2308045 2321392 2325750 2326038 2293734
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -644.00
USD Million
-583 -573 -566 -560 -529
Exports 1396.10
USD Million
1418 1404 1388 1373 1219
Imports 2040.10
USD Million
2021 1996 1971 1947 1720
Current Account -239.10
USD Million
-172 -192 -205 -214 -243
Current Account to GDP -4.00
percent
-3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.2
External Debt 26032.60
EUR Million
25950 25976 25957 25874 24914
Capital Flows -214.00
USD Million
-136 -156 -167 -174 -184
Gold Reserves 19.20
Tonnes
18.79 18.23 18.04 18.05 16.64
Terrorism Index 0.04
0.54 0.58 0.61 0.64 1.82
Tourist Arrivals 136728.00
54000 63000 81600 88700 81200
Weapons Sales 29.00
USD Million
12.96 10.78 8.6 6.42 11.91
Foreign Direct Investment 291.20
EUR Million
339 357 371 382 418
Crude Oil Production 19.00
BBL/D/1K
18.62 18.45 18.29 18.14 17.28
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 72.90
percent
71.6 71.6 71.6 71.6 70.6
Government Budget -0.20
percent of GDP
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1
Government Debt 2749705.81
RSD Million
2688101 2656526 2639765 2630239 2592708
Government Spending 174921.50
RSD Million
168108 176264 171352 185702 179211
Military Expenditure 714.30
USD Million
772 769 766 763 829
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production 0.50
percent
0.7 1.75 2.19 2.29 2.28
Manufacturing Production 1.70
percent
2.38 2.03 1.88 1.81 1.73
Internet Speed 11086.42
KBps
11283 11189 11168 11110 9842
IP Addresses 1302521.00
IP
1261709 1247890 1243013 1233220 1140289
Steel Production 146.10
Thousand Tonnes
120 111 106 102 93.49
Ease of Doing Business 43.00
46 46 47 48 67
Corruption Index 42.00
Points
41 41 41 41 39
Corruption Rank 72.00
71 74 76 79 85
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 4.02
Competitiveness Rank 78.00
85 85 85 85 86
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Retail Sales YoY 1.50
percent
2.41 2.95 3.42 3.8 5.26
Consumer Credit 904985.00
SRB Million
909439 910855 910708 909650 880906
Gasoline Prices 1.48
USD/Liter
1.51 1.51 1.51 1.5 1.42
Retail Sales Mom 12.10
percent
0.6 -0.03 0.58 0.43 0.43
Consumer Spending 798312.10
RSD Million
792404 796027 796765 794707 789097
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Home Ownership Rate 82.40
percent
81.73 81.43 81.12 80.82 82.2
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
14 14 14 14 13
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 19
Social Security Rate 37.80
percent
37 37 37 37 36
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90
percent
18.11 18.11 18.11 18.11 18.44
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90
percent
19.48 19.48 19.48 19.48 17.87
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 23.08
celsius
1.07 14.7 19.1 5.18 10.23