Central Bank of Serbia Leaves Rates Steady

The National Bank of Serbia left its key policy rate unchanged at 5.75% at its March 2026 meeting, while also keeping the deposit facility rate at 4.5% and the lending facility rate at 7%. The decision was in line with both current and expected inflation developments, as well as domestic and global factors influencing price dynamics. The central bank expects inflation to remain within its target tolerance band of 3% ± 1.5 percentage points through the end of 2026 and over the medium term. However, policymakers noted that the sharp increase in international crude oil prices is likely to be reflected in higher domestic petroleum product prices. Monetary policy decisions will continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, taking into account incoming data, the outlook for inflation, as well as an assessment of the effects of previously implemented policy measures.

The National Bank of Serbia held its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.75% at its February 2026 meeting, alongside the deposit rate (4.5%) and the credit facility rate (7%). Inflation continued to move slightly below the central bank’s target during the final quarter of 2025, falling to 2.7% in December, and is expected to stay within the target range of 3% (±1.5%) through the end of 2026 and over the medium term. The Board anticipates economic growth to accelerate this year and next, supported by both household consumption and investment in fixed assets. Net exports are also expected to contribute positively in 2027, buoyed by the hosting of the specialized exhibition “Expo.” The central bank stressed that a cautious monetary policy stance remains necessary amid global uncertainty, stemming from trade and geopolitical tensions, while reaffirming its commitment to a data-driven and flexible approach aimed at maintaining financial stability and supporting growth.

The National Bank of Serbia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75% at its first policy meeting of 2026, with deposit and lending facility rates also steady at 4.5% and 7.0%, respectively. Inflation stabilized slightly below the central target of 3% (±1.5%) by the end of 2025 and is expected to remain near the target in the short term. The domestic economy grew moderately last year, with real GDP rising 2%, supported by robust activity in the services and industrial sectors, particularly automotive. Looking ahead, GDP growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, underpinned by consumption, fixed asset investment, and the “Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027” initiative. The central bank will maintain a cautious monetary policy amid global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, aiming to support growth, exports, and financial stability.