Serbia Holds Interest Rate at 5.75%

The National Bank of Serbia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75% at its first policy meeting of 2026, with deposit and lending facility rates also steady at 4.5% and 7.0%, respectively. Inflation stabilized slightly below the central target of 3% (±1.5%) by the end of 2025 and is expected to remain near the target in the short term. The domestic economy grew moderately last year, with real GDP rising 2%, supported by robust activity in the services and industrial sectors, particularly automotive. Looking ahead, GDP growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, underpinned by consumption, fixed asset investment, and the “Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027” initiative. The central bank will maintain a cautious monetary policy amid global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, aiming to support growth, exports, and financial stability.

The National Bank of Serbia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75% at its final meeting of 2025. Deposit and credit facility rates were also held steady at 4.5% and 7.0%, respectively. After inflation eased to 2.9% in September and 2.8% in October, the Board expects it to hover around the 3% target through March next year and even by the end of 2026. GDP growth in Q3 remained at 2%, in line with the central bank’s expectations, driven mainly by the services and industrial sectors, while construction activity continued to contract. The Board projects economic growth of 2.1% for 2025, accelerating to 3.5% in 2026, supported by household consumption and fixed investment. The central bank emphasized that a cautious approach to monetary policy remains necessary amid global uncertainty, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks, while reaffirming its commitment to a data-driven and flexible approach aimed at maintaining financial stability and supporting growth.

The National Bank of Serbia kept its benchmark rate at 5.75% in November, along with deposit (4.5%) and credit facility (7%) rates. Inflation has slowed significantly to 2.9% in September and 2.8% in October, aided by government limits on trade margins for certain goods. The Bank expects inflation to remain near the 3% target, supported by systemic laws against unfair trade practices, easing global cost pressures, and a potentially stronger agricultural season, though rising disposable incomes may counter this. GDP growth slowed to 2.0% in Q3, driven by automotive production, exports, and services, with weaker investment and consumer confidence. The Board emphasized caution due to global instability, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks, committing to data-driven, flexible policy to preserve financial stability and support growth.