Serbian GDP Growth Confirmed at Two-Year Low

The Serbian economy expanded by 2% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, confirming preliminary estimates and the same pace as in the previous three-month period. Growth increased further for both household consumption (3.4% vs 3.1% in Q2) and government spending (3.9% vs 3.8%). Additionally, gross fixed capital formation declined at a lesser extent (-2.1% vs -3.9%). On the external side, net trade contributed negatively to the GDP, as exports (4.2% vs 5.6%) rose less than imports (5.2% vs 9.7%). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy advanced by 0.6% in Q3, slowing from a slightly upwardly revised 1.2% growth in the preceding period.

Serbia’s economy expanded by 2.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slightly exceeding preliminary estimates of 2.0% and accelerating from a downwardly revised 1.9% growth in Q1 2025. The GDP growth was primarily driven by household consumption (+3.0% vs. +1.6% in Q1) and government expenditure (+3.7% vs. +0.5%). On the external side, both exports (+4.6% vs. +8.6%) and imports (+9.8% vs. +11.3%) grew at a slower pace. However, gross fixed capital formation declined by 4.0%, worsening from a 0.8% contraction in Q1. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the Serbian economy grew 1.1% in Q2, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction in Q1 2025.

Serbia’s economy grew by 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, in line with preliminary estimates but slowing from a 3.3% increase in Q4 2024. The GDP growth deceleration was mainly driven by a decline in gross fixed capital formation (-1% vs. 1.1%), and a slower rise in household consumption (1.7% vs. 3.8%). However, this was partially offset by a rebound in government expenditure (0.5% vs. -0.3%). On the external front, exports expanded at a slower pace (7.5% vs. 8.1%), while imports accelerated (11.5% vs. 7.1%). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the Serbian economy contracted by 0.6%, following a 1.1% growth in Q4 2024.