Paraguay Holds Interest Rate at 5.5%

The Central Bank of Paraguay maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.50% at its April meeting. The committee cited global uncertainty and the IMF's downward revision of world growth to 3.1%. In the U.S., unemployment fell to 4.3%, but inflation rose to 3.3%, maintaining caution in international markets despite a slight easing in Treasury bond yields. Internationally, Brent crude traded near 95 dollars amid geopolitical tensions, while commodities such as soybeans, corn, and wheat rose due to weather factors and increased demand. At the national level, the IMAEP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in February, with strong momentum in services and construction. Business sales (ECN) expanded by 4.8%, and consumer confidence remained in positive territory. Monthly inflation was 0.8% in March, putting the annual rate at 1.9%, with expectations anchored at 3.5% and a projected annual GDP growth of 4.2%. The CPM reaffirmed its commitment to price stability.

The Central Bank of Paraguay maintained its policy interest rate at 5.50% at its March meeting. The committee cited global developments including IMF estimates showing global growth at 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, while in the US GDP grew 0.7% annualised in Q4 2025, February job gains undershot expectations as unemployment rose to 4.4%, and annual inflation held at 2.4%, with markets now pricing no further Federal Reserve cuts in 2026. Internationally oil prices rose past $100 per barrel amid geopolitical uncertainty despite oversupply expectations, while agricultural prices were mixed with moderate increases in soybeans, corn, and wheat. Domestically the IMAEP grew 0.9% year on year in January supported by services, electricity and water, and agriculture, while the business figures estimator rose 0.2%. Inflation continued to ease with the CPI at 0% in February, annual inflation reaching 2.3%, and inflation expectations anchored at 3.5%. The CPM reaffirmed its commitment to price stability.

The Central Bank of Paraguay cut its policy interest rate to 5.75% at its January meeting. The committee cited global developments including IMF estimates showing global growth at 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, while in the US GDP grew 4.4% annualised in Q3 2025, December job gains undershot expectations as unemployment fell to 4.4%, and annual inflation held at 2.7%, with markets still pricing further Federal Reserve cuts in 2026. Internationally oil prices rose amid geopolitical uncertainty despite oversupply expectations, while agricultural prices were mixed with soybeans rising and corn and wheat falling. Domestically the IMAEP grew 4.0% year on year in November supported by services, electricity and water, agriculture and livestock, while manufacturing softened. Inflation continued to ease with the CPI at -0.3% in December, annual inflation ending 2025 at 3.1%, and inflation expectations anchored at 3.5%. The CPM reaffirmed its commitment to price stability.