Nigeria Inflation Edges Lower to Five-Year Low in February

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased slightly to 15.06% in February 2026 from 15.10% in the previous month, marking the lowest level since November 2020 and the 11th consecutive month of declining inflation. However, the pace of disinflation has slowed in the past two months, following a small interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which signaled expectations that inflation will continue to moderate. Despite the overall slowdown, food inflation, traditionally the main driver of headline prices in the country, rose to 12.12% in February from 8.89% in January. The National Bureau of Statistics recently introduced a revised methodology for calculating inflation, shifting to a 12-month reference period instead of relying on a single-month comparison.

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased slightly to 15.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in the prior month, marking the tenth consecutive monthly decline. This marks the lowest level since November 2020, partly due to a stronger currency reducing the cost of imports. Food inflation, the largest component of the inflation basket, continued to fall for the sixth month, reaching 8.89%, mainly on account of staples like cooking oil, grains and vegetables amid ample supply. Prices also slowed for other CPI items such as recreation & culture (1.52% vs 12.12%); clothing & footwear (10.91% vs 13.16%) and alcoholic beverages & tobacco (13.62% vs 14.98%), but climbed for education (22.48% vs 16.36%). The core inflation rate, which strips out the volatile prices of agricultural produce and energy, remained elevated but moderated for the seventh month to 17.72% in January 2026, the lowest since October 2022. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell by 2.88% in January, after a 0.54% rise in the prior month.

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate moderated to 15.15% in December 2025, the softest since November 2020, from the revised 17.33% in the prior month, after the statistics office revised its calculation method. The CPI now uses a 12-month 2024 average as the reference (100), instead of December 2024 alone, preventing an artificial spike in year-on-year inflation. Under the previous methodology, the agency had projected inflation would have surged to 31.2% in December. This is coming after it changed the base year from 2009 to 2024 earlier in 2025. Food, the largest category in the inflation basket, eased for the fifth month to 10.84% in December from the revised 14.21% in November. The core inflation rate, which strips out the volatile prices of agricultural produce and energy, slowed for the sixth month to 18.63% in December 2025, down from the revised 20.59% in November. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.54%, following a 1.22% increase in the prior month.